Week Ahead: 10th September 2018

Week Ahead: 10th September 2018
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As we begin to think about a new week, last week’s sharp sell-off in emerging market assets, developed market equities, particularly tech stocks, remains in focus. Although risk sentiment had picked up by the end of the week, it highlights a fragility in the markets, and this could be the first of many risk off […]

Amazon vs. the rest of the world, what next for US stocks?

Amazon vs. the rest of the world, what next for US stocks?
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As we move into the autumn months, it’s worth looking more closely at the US stock market, which appears to have disconnected from other risk markets. For example, Amazon made a fresh record high on Tuesday and became another trillion-dollar company. In contrast, the South African rand is close to a record low and has […]

Trump’s impact on US GDP, and why the Brazilian real is the new Turkish lira

Trump’s impact on US GDP, and why the Brazilian real is the new Turkish lira
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US stock index futures have turned lower even though the second reading of Q2 GDP was revised higher to 4.2% from 4% initially. Personal consumption slipped a little, to 3.8% from 4%, however private investment and trade helped to boost the overall GDP report. Trump’s trade tariffs pay dividends already The impact of government policies […]

Why you can’t trust Trump when it comes to the dollar

Why you can’t trust Trump when it comes to the dollar
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What do you do if you want a currency to move 100 pips in 24 hours in mid-August? The answer is simple; wait for a President to talk down his currency and criticize his central bank. No, this is not Turkey, this is the US, where President Trump pulled a ‘President Erdogan’ and told Reuters […]

Turkey bailout fails to boost TRY, as Italy weighs on the euro

Turkey bailout fails to boost TRY, as Italy weighs on the euro
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The Turkish lira is the worst performing currency in the FX space today after a spokesman for the German Chancellor ruled out financial assistance for Erdogan’s government. Considering today sees the final tranche of bailout money handed out to Greece, it is unlikely to be one in, one out on the bailout front if Berlin […]

ECB in a bind, BOJ plays stick not twist, and why the dollar is looking weak

ECB in a bind, BOJ plays stick not twist, and why the dollar is looking weak
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Inflation may become the hot new topic for financial markets as we move into the latter stages of the summer months. The July CPI rate for the Eurozone came in stronger than expected at 2.1%, the fastest rate of price growth since 2012. Core prices are also rising, albeit at a slower pace, to 1.1%. […]

Week Ahead: 30th July 2018

Week Ahead: 30th July 2018
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  Central banks and data deluge to drive August markets As we start a new week the Vix index (Wall Street’s fear gauge) is sitting at 13.45, a notch below the average of the past 12 months, which comes in at 13.68. However, this figure is worth watching, as it could end the week significantly […]

Two things to watch in FX this week

Two things to watch in FX this week
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Two key events are dominating the FX world this morning: the first is the Reuters report that the Bank of Japan will alter its stimulus programme. The yen is the top performing currency in the G10 this morning, which reverses a month-long period of weakness for JPY. The report suggests that the BOJ is looking […]

Why stocks aren’t sweating the commodity decline

Why stocks aren’t sweating the commodity decline
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Source: Bloomberg and Capital Index Usually when commodity markets move sharply it can spell danger for the broader financial markets. Thus, the sharp decline in some metals on the back of global trade war fears, and the overall malaise in the commodity markets might be a warning sign that other asset classes could be at […]

UK banks brush off EU access fears as US inflation fails to move the Fed’s dial

UK banks brush off EU access fears as US inflation fails to move the Fed’s dial
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Source: Bloomberg and Capital Index US CPI was in-line with expectations for June, suggesting that prices are rising at a manageable rate. The annual rate of headline inflation rose to 2.9% from 2.8%, while core prices rose to 2.3%, the highest level in 2 years. The dollar index, which had rallied into the data, backed […]