David Long

September 2017 Market Overview

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September 2017 Market Overview

$Us Dollar:  The month started with improved ISM Manufacturing and disappointing Non-Farm Employment Change, Non- Manufacturing PMI , Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Unemployment Rate and Unemployment Claims. Crude Oil Inventories improved.

Mid-month met disappointing PPI m/m, Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m. CPI m/m improved as did Unemployment Claims and Building Permits. Core CPI m/m came in line with expectations.

Fed kept Interest Rate on hold at 1.25%. Unemployment Claims improved as did Crude Oil Inventories.

The month ended with improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m.

Sept Chart

USD Index slowed down it’s decent and went sideways, re-testing 92.5 resistance twice, now after German Election it retraced back to it again. This shows overall indecision in the $US against the Basket of Currencies. Bullish MACD and Stoch Divergence.

CNY:  Industrial Production y/y came well below expectations.

EurUsd:  ECB kept interest rate on hold at 0.00%. German Elections:  Angela Merkel’s party gained 33% of the vote, which means she will be forming the government for the fourth time.

Sept Chart

EurUsd: Eur was dancing sideways below 1.208 resistance, dropping some 115 Pips post election result. Strong MACD and Stoch bearish Divergence.

GbpUsd:  The month started with improved Manufacturing, disappointing Services and Construction PMI. Manufacturing Production m/m came above expectations as did CPI y/y. Average Earnings Index 3m/y disappointed. Interest rates remained on hold at 0.25%. Retail Sales improved. Brexit issues continue to influence the negotiations.

Sept Chart

GBPUSD: after ascending 740 Pips Gbp is consolidating around 1.35 resistance.

AudUsd: The month started with RBA leaving interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. GDP q/q came as expected. Retail Sales disappointed, Trade Balance came half of what was expected. Employment Change came well above expectations, Unemployment Rate came in line.

Sept Chart

AudUsd  continued it’s sideways move throughout the month.

Week ahead in the News

USD:  ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate,  Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories Unemployment Claims.

 GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Inflation Report Hearings; AUD:  RBA Rate  and Monetary Policy Statement; Trade Balance, Retail sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.

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