March 2017 Market Overview
$Us Dollar: The month started with disappointing Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Preliminary GDP g/g. This followed with improved CB Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Claims. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change came well above expectations, as did PPI m/m, CPI m/m and Core Retail Sales. Core CPI m/m and Unemployment Rate came as expected. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Retail Sales m/m came below expectations.
Mid-month Federal Reserve increased the rate from 0.75% to 1% in line with expectations. The dollar dived as a result, against expectations. Building Permits disappointed, Filly Fed Manufacturing Index improved. Unemployment Claims improved, as did Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Crude Oil Inventories improved , while Unemployment Claims and Core Durable Goods Orders m/m came below expectations. The month ended with improved CB Consumer Confidence, disappointing Crude Oil Inventories and Unemployment Claims. Final GDP Q/Q increased to 2.1% , above expected 2%.
USD Index is potentially forming Head and Shoulder, now bounced back up from the neck line.
CNY: The month started with improved Caixin Manufacturing PMI, very disappointing Trade Balance at -60B and reduced CPIy/y at 0.8%. Mid-month brought Industrial production y/y above expectations.
EurUsd: ECB left Interest Rate at 0%. German Ifo Business Climate came above expectation, German Zed economic sentiment disappoints. Final CPI y/y came at 2% as expected.
EurUsd: Forming reversed Head and Shoulder with neckline aligned with monthly horizontal and 61.8 Fib. Brexit Article 50 Trigger 29 March sent Eur down some 150 Pips starting a new Phase 1 down.
GbpUsd: The month started with disappointing Manufacturing and Services PMI, Construction PMI came above expectations. Manufacturing Production m/m came well below expectations. Official Bank Rate remained at 0.25%. Average Earnings Index 3m/y was disappointing, followed by improved Claimant Count Change. CPI y/y increased to 2.3% and Retail Sales came above expectations.
GBPUSD: continued it’s dance in the established Range. Brexit Article 50 Trigger 29 March sent it down 200 Pips, now appears to be bouncing back.
AudUsd: March brought GDP q/q above expectations, Retail Sales came in line. Interest Rate remained at 1.5%. Mid-month brought disappointing Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
AudUsd continues it’s dance within a range, now being squashed within a triangle.
Week ahead in the News
USD: ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories.
CNY: Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Manufacturing Production m/m, AUD: Retail Sales, Trade Balance, Cash rate; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate; NZD:GDT Price Index.