June 2017 Market Overview
$Us Dollar: The month started with improved ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. Unemployment Claims came well below expectations, as did Non-Farm Employment Change. ISM Manufacturing PMI came above, ISM Non- Manufacturing PMI below expectations. Average Hourly Earnings m/m came in line at 0.2%.
Mid-month saw unchanged PPI m/m. CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m and Core Retail Sales all came disappointing. FOMC raised the interest rate to 1.25% in line with expectations. This was followed with reduced Unemployment Claims and disappointing Building Permits. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m came well below expectations.
USD Index is playing out Head and Shoulder, this month ranging below 97.5 resistance level. The raising of the interest rate by FED so far had a mild impact .
CNY: The month started with disappointing Trade Balance. Industrial Production y/y improved.
EurUsd: The month started with the bulk of European Bank holidays. ECB left the Interest Rate unchanged. The month is ending with the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Portugal.
EurUsd: Having reached the target of reversed Head and Shoulder at 1.129 Eur continued in the Range below that resistance level, now re-testing the top of the upward channel.
GbpUsd: The month started with improved Manufacturing and Construction PMI , Services PMI were disappointing. Parliamentary Elections sent the GBP down some 370 Pips. Manufacturing Production m/m came well below expectations. CPI y/y came at 2.9%, above expectations. Interest rate remained on hold. Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Retail Sales disappointed. Mark Carney, BOR governor spoke against the rate hike re-emphasizing his concerns about the impact of Brexit on the economy. He highlighted the risks to business investment, the current-account deficit and the financial services industry.
GBPUSD: Pound dropped some 350 Pips after GB Parliamentary Elections, Now ranging below 1.277 resistance level and 200EMA.
AudUsd: The month started with Private Capital expenditure q/q below and Retail Sales above expectations. RBA left interest rate on hold at 1.5%. GDP q/q came above, trade Balance below expectations. Mid-month saw improved Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
AudUsd gained some 250 Pips, now retesting 200 EMA at 0.752 Support
Week ahead in the News
USD: ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, FOMC meeting Minutes, Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories.
CNY: Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Inflation Report hearings, Manufacturing production m/m; AUD: Cash rate, RBA Rate Statement; Trade Balance, Retail sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.