David Long

July 2017 Market Overview

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$Us Dollar:  The month started with improved ISM Manufacturing and Non- Manufacturing PMI. Non-Farm Employment Change improved. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came below expectations as did the Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings m/m. Crude Oil Inventories were disappointing.

Mid-month met improved PPI m/m, slightly increased Unemployment Claims, while CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m and Core Retail Sales came disappointing. Building Permits and Unemployment Claims improved. Crude Oil Inventories kept disappointing.

The month ended with improved CB Consumer Confidence and Advanced GDP q/q, while Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Unemployment Claims and Crude Oil Inventories came below expectations.

USD Index plummeted down below 93, after playing out Head and Shoulder from top hard resistance, showing overall weakness in the $US against the Basket of Currencies.

CNY: Good news all around with improved Caixin Manufacturing PMi, GDP q/y and Industrial Production y/y.

EurUsd:  Minimum Bid Rate remained on hold, with the QE policy remaining unchanged.

EurUsd: With the $US weakness, Eur has just broken out of the 2.5 year range, rallying some 520 Pips in July.

GbpUsd:  The month started with disappointing Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI. Manufacturing Production m/m came well below expectations. Average Earnings Index 3m/y remained unchanged. Mid-month brought CPI y/y at 2.6%, below expectations, Retail Sales improved. Preliminary GDP q/q came in line with expectations.

GBPUSD: Continued ascending, up some 420 Pips this month, now approaching long term trendline resistance.

AudUsd: The month started with improved Trade Balance and Retail Sales.  Employment Change and Unemployment Rate came in line with expectations. The month ended with disappointing CPI q/q and as expected Trimmed CPI q/q.

AudUsd broke out from a Monthly resistance, ascending some 500 Pips, now dancing just under the 0.8 key monthly horizontal.

Week ahead in the News

USD:  ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate,  Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories Unemployment Claims.

GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Official Bank Rate AUD: RBA Rate  and Monetary Policy Statement; Trade Balance, Retail sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.

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