David Long

February Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar:  February started on a low note with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and increased Unemployment Claims. This followed with improved ADP Non-Farm and disappointing Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Rate reduced to 4.9% and Average hourly earnings m/m came above expectations. Second week brought Crude Oil Inventories and UoM Consumer Confidence below expectations while Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m improved. Second half of the month brought PPI m/m and Unemployment Claims above expectations, Building Permits and Filly Fed Manufacturing Index came below. CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m improved. FOMC minutes indicated that Fed acknowledged potential downside risks to the global economic outlook and that any rate hike has been put on hold for now. This followed by reduced CB Consumer Confidence. The month ended with much improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Preliminary GDP q/q well above expectations.

CNY: The month started with reduced Manufacturing PMI while Caixin Manufacturing PMI improved. Second half brought Trade Balance well above expectations. G20 meeting at the end of the month in Shanghai expecting China to unveil platform for the government spending and renewed pledges for currency stability.

EurUsd:  Eur started the month with a rally due to the weak US data and improved EU Unemployment Rate. German preliminary GDP came unchanged, Zew Economic Sentiment above expectations. The end of the month saw Flash Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI and German Info Business Climate below expectations.

EurUsd
Following 2 month of sideways action EurUsd broke through 1.1 Resistance and the mid-term downtrend trendline, rallying 560 pips before retracing to the 78.6 Fib level at the end of the month and testing the new uptrend trendline.

 

GbpUsd: The month started with Manufacturing and Services PMI above expectations, Construction PMI below. BOE kept interest rates on hold. Disappointing Manufacturing Production m/m followed CPI y/y and Average Earnings Index 3m/y came as expected. Second half of the month brought improved Claimant Count Change and CPI y/y and Retail Sales.  The month ended with second estimate GDP q/q as expected.

GDPUSD
GDPUSD started the month by retracing to 50 Fib and 50 EMA, then continued it’s 800 pip decent.

 

AudUsd: The month started with disappointing Retail Sales and Trade Balance while Building Approvals improved. This followed by disappointing Employment Change and increased Unemployment Rate. February ended on a positive note with private Capital Expenditure above expectations.

AudUsd continued it’s sideways movement, in the upwards direction, reversing at 15 year trendline (in blue) at the end of the month.
AudUsd continued it’s sideways movement, in the upwards direction, reversing at 15 year trendline (in blue) at the end of the month.

 

UsdCad: First week brought improved Trade Balance, while Employment Change and Unemployment Rate were disappointing. Second half of the month brought improved Manufacturing Sales m/m and Core CPI m/m while Core Retail Sales m/m came disappointing.

UsdCad continues it’s slow decent on strengthening oil price, now breaking through a long term upword trendline and a neck line of the Head And Shoulder reversal pattern.
UsdCad continues it’s slow decent on strengthening oil price, now breaking through a long term upword trendline and a neck line of the Head And Shoulder reversal pattern.

 

UsdJpy : BOJ started the month with the introduction of “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate” dropping Interest rate to -0.1%.  This followed with a JPY 1000 pip rally, Risk On helping. Preliminary GDP came below estimates.

 

UsdJpy
UsdJpy 1000 pip drop, broke through H&S neckline, now retracing up having formed double bottom.

 

Week ahead in the News

USD: ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate.

CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI;  GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI;  AUD: Cash Rate, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales; CAD: Trade Balance, GDP m/m.

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