David Long

August 2017 Market Overview

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August 2017 Market Overview

$Us Dollar:  The month started with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and Non- Manufacturing PMI. Non-Farm Employment Change improved. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change came below expectations as did the Unemployment Claims. Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings m/m came in line.

Crude Oil Inventories were disappointing, while

Mid-month met disappointing PPI m/m, CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m and Building Permits. Retail Sales m/m and Core Retail Sales came above expectations, Unemployment Claims improved. Crude Oil Inventories kept disappointing.

The month ended with improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m.

USD Index started the month retracing back in Phase two, then continued it’s decent, braking through the long term monthly Horizontal of 92.5. This shows continuing overall weakness in the $US against the Basket of Currencies.

CNY:  Industrial Production y/y came well below expectations.

EurUsd:  German Ifo Business Climate came above expectations. Eur Spiked to it’s highest since January 2015 on Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole that global recovery is firming up. He also stated that significant monetary policy is still needed.

EurUsd: Eur was dancing below the next zone of resistance, now attempting to break through 1.19 Level.

GbpUsd:  The month started with improved Manufacturing and Services PMI, disappointing Construction PMI. Interest rates remained on hold. Manufacturing Production m/m came in line with expectations. Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Retail Sales improved. CPI y/y at 2.6% came below expectations. Second estimate of GDP q/q came in line with expectations.

GBPUSD: Gbp Descended some 480 Pips, bouncing back on 1.28 support, now in the upward move.

AudUsd: The month started with RBA leaving interest rate unchanged. Trade Balance came disappointing, Retail Sales improved.  Employment Change came well above expectations, Unemployment Rate came in line.

AudUsd descended to 0.78 support, then bounced back in a sideways move.

Week ahead in the News

USD:  ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate,  Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories Unemployment Claims.

 Eur: Minimum Bid Rate; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Inflation Report Hearings, Manufacturing production; AUD:  RBA Rate  and Monetary Policy Statement; GDP q/q, Trade Balance, Retail sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Overnight Rate, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate; CNY: Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance.

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