David Long

Upbeat night as Janet Yellen matures – April 17th, 2014

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Oh what a night! Good Ol Aunty Janet, she knows how to talk proper now, she been havin lessons! With a calm measured approach to her speech she kept the eye on the ball and said, “The larger the shortfall of employment or inflation from their respective objectives, and the slower the projected progress toward those objectives, the longer the current target range for the federal funds rate is likely to be maintained”. That is the kind of political talk we want to hear Aunty. Seriously though, I thought it was good, far better than her last attempt. Which calms the market and the resulting bid in stocks and commodities was gratifying to see. RISK is back on peoples, go chase that yield!  

Also adding to the euphoria overnight was the Poms unemployment rate, falling below 7% for first time since 2009. Did find a ceiling though. Will be looking for it to break that in coming days/weeks. We are still on the “buy-anything-British” bandwagon.

The only disappointment was Poloz from the BOC, stating “…we are neutral, and that means rate cuts can not be taken off the table at this stage.” Annoying, wish he had said something along the lines of: “we are neutral, whilst we maintain vigilance of negative pressures we are looking forward.” His negative stance saw the Loonie weaken further and more than likely will continue to do so, not the result I was hoping or expecting. The Loonie will now be trapped and range bound.

Have a great Easter weekend. Currency markets will be open but trading will be light.


AUDUSD – A buyer bar but LHLL. I suspect it will chop about until after Anzac day to be honest. Still, be looking for shorting opportunities as I expect it to retrace further.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9300/9085/8900/8654

EURUSD – Tried to run with the bulls but the Torero’s won the day. A HHHL yes, but with strong data coming from US and UK, funds will head outside the Eurozone chasing yield. And that would be ok for Draghi. Be patient, the eurodollar’s turn for a good run will come.
Resistance: 14050/14260/14320
Support: 13646/13565/13488

GBPUSD – Well, we got the buying, Yeeha-Grandma! Previous double top of 1.6820 stopped it, and that is understandable. Too risky to trade this for me, my stops would be too wide and the upside gain too small, not worth it. I am bullish and want to be long but will be patient now. OR. Look at GBPAUD/GBPCAD/GBPNZD as alternative options.
Resistance: 16820/1.69/1.70
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – LHLL low test bar, do not be fooled though, there is more selling to come yet.
Resistance: 8676/8842
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Hmmmm Poloz the prankster has given us a HHHL buyer bar and quiet possibly the worst outcome. Range bound now it will be, 1.08 to 1.12 for some time I suspect. These levels happen to be the 38.2% and 50% fib retracements from 2009 high to 2011 lows.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10953/10859/10715

USDJPY – Risk is on, appetite strong, and we are long. A HHHL and up we go. Any more, rhymes in store. OK. I’ll move along.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.40/100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – An inside doji bar, which pretty much makes sense as the market tries to swallow that gold is not so much wanted. Although, the Ukrainian crisis is heating up again and could give a spike to the yellow metal.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040



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