David Long

A run down of the Markets this week – Forex Trading News – February 28th 2014

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Forex Market News

Some interesting articles for you thismorning:

  • Yellen speaks on the U.S. Slowdown – Watching the weather.
  • Ukraine – Russia ups the anti.
  • Bitcoin – yesterday’s tulip run.

Despite a few growls from the Russian bear Putin, the markets have done little. Gas and Oil, two major commodities that flow through the Ukraine to Europe and currently subject to Putin’s hand on the tap, are actually tanking. The Yen and Swiss have attracted some bidding but gold is off too. So, I see investors not worried about matters in Kiev. The Yen and Swiss moves are more likely to be from rolling of positions. Over at the CFTC, the shorts on Yen Futures contracts has dropped 60% in last two months signalling a potential end to the weakness.

Most commodities are off overnight, as mentioned gas and oil are down. Gold is also off and copper dropped half a percent too. Stocks are up a little and trading slightly under record highs, whilst bond yields have rallied due to what commentators are speculating as Kiev Safe Haven.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – EUR CPI and unemployment. Canadian GDP. US GDP & Chicago PMI & Pending home sales. UK Carney speech. Chinese Manufacturing PMI.

AUDUSD – A nice test of support at 89 cents but market rallied off that price hard. I still sit on the fence as this now completes the right shoulder, although I would prefer to be a seller so if next week it makes LL’s I will be selling too.

Resistance: 9085/9167/9300

Support: 8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – The Euro has now completed its cycle above the 50ema. As this pair has lagged behind its neighbour, the pound, I see it having a run soon. If Monday’s bar is a HHHL an opportunity to run higher will be for us on Tuesday.

Resistance: 13733/13830/14065

Support: 13488/13420/13266

GBPUSD – 2 LHLL’s in a row, but also 2 test bars as well. Is caught between a rock and hard place at the moment. I would prefer to see it lower so I can buy it but it may not get there.

Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70

Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – A strong buyer bar but still inside the range. A messy trading pair is the kiwi but looks like it wants to test 85 soon.

Resistance: 8400/8475/8535

Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Trending higher and should continue to do so with no sign of strength in the commodity world and no sign of exhaustion in momentum.

Resistance: 11170/11233

Support: 10859/10715

USDJPY – Really is struggling to set a trend in any direction. That said, it is under the ema so is decidedly weaker than stronger. Still, I am bullish this pair and despite the hedge funds closing out of the futures short trade, I think that just opens the door to get long. Will wait for a break above 102.90 first though.

Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50

Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Yesterday we saw this trade within five bucks of resistance before becoming a large engulfing seller bar. There is momentum divergence up here too, so expect this to trade back to minor support of 1307.

Resistance: 1,350/1427/1480

Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040


David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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