David Long

The PMI’s from China and US Exceeded Forecasts – Forex Trading News – May 23th 2014

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Forex Market News

Happy Friday Peoples! The raft of data yesterday did not surprise and so volatility was a little low. This morning I see a few headlines of note, and of amusement.

Firstly on the Euro. The PMI’s from China and US exceeded forecasts but the struggling Europeans missed and so the sell came in. This headline confirms what we all know Read More

Then the pound had an inside seller day, mostly I think because private sector borrowing tripled the expectations, which is not good. The GDP was ok and on the money so the Cable had a bit of a sell in it…“The market likes an upside surprise for the pound,” said Lee McDarby, executive director of U.K. corporate foreign-exchange sales at Nomura International in London. “Obviously we’re a bit spoilt now given that anything merely in line is deemed to be a disappointment.”…. Read More

This then caught my eye, more out of interest than its application to FX trading, but bond market in the 90’s was where I started my career. Looks like the good times are coming back next year! Read More

Finally, these two articles on the same subject made me choke on my coffee. Read More
Read more

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – German Business Climate. Canadian CPI. US Home sales.

AUDUSD – Yeah it is a HHHL and looks like a nice swing low. However, the last cycle failed so I am not buying into this. It will test 92 cents today.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9200/9085/8900

EURUSD – An inside seller bar is not much indication but there is definitely weakness here and possibly more to come.
Resistance: 13890/14050/14260/14320
Support: 13700/13646/13565/13488

GBPUSD – Also an inside seller bar. We moved stops yesterday to reduce capital risk, nothing to do on a bar like this though.
Resistance: 1.70/1.7060/1.7370
Support: 1.6820/1.66/1.63

NZDUSD – No trade setup with the inside seller bar. I suspect it will follow the Aussie lower and test the previous significant low of April 29th at 8516
Resistance: 8745/8842
Support: 8523/8434/8090

USDCAD – Froth indeed. We have a swing high and now the debate on what to do will start. Technically we have 2 cycles now under the 50ema, producing LHLL in each cycle. The ema’s are starting to flatline and fundamentally I think the Loonie and Greenback are balanced in strength. Because the technical do not match my fundamental view I will abstain from the short phase trade, however, some may take it and I would not blame them.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10802/10715

USDJPY – Here however I do like the price action. Will look to participate in this today if I can. A HHHL coming off low momentum and bottom of range/support line.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.40/100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Still uninteresting, the most interesting thing is that it has closed in the 1290’s 8 of the last 9 trading sessions.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040

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