David Long

Vladimir Putin moves the market

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Forex trading news – a mid week view

Whiplash! Thanks Putin. Did Putin play the markets or get told off by the big end of town? Perhaps having owned Obama and Kerry in Syrian dispute, Putin got owned by Merkel in Crimea. Whatever the reason the pullback was fantastic to watch.

Stocks all up strongly, gold and oil back off. Effectively all the moves of Monday night were reversed last night. The odd one out was the bond market, which hadn’t seen much safe haven flow Monday but yields rose strongly overnight, the most in months.

RBA no change as expected but Stevens did mention the height of the currency again. In Feb he was happy with the rate, even saying at these levels it “would assist in achieving balanced growth”.  So what has changed Glenn, really? The rate is a mere 100 pips higher, in fact in 3 months it has been in a 300 pip range so not exactly running away from you…mate, you need lessons from Putin, now he can move a market!

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU GDP. UK Services PMI. US Non-manufacturing PMI. BOC Interest Rate statement.

AUDUSD – A HHHL but doji bar, no discernable trade I would like to take here.
Resistance: 9085/9167/9300
Support: 8900/8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – A test bar in a range/trend means little, this is a LHLL seller bordering on bearish bar. Like the Aussie it has done little in 3 months, effectively bounced around in 300 pip range.
Resistance: 13733/13830/14065
Support: 13488/13420/13266

GBPUSD – Also a LHLL seller bar, want a deeper pullback before buying this again. A pullback to the ema.
Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – No trade in as we get a HHHL. Look for price and momentum exhaustion this time around.
Resistance: 8400/8475/8535
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Also a HHHL as it chops about. Nothing to see here yet.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10859/10715

USDJPY – Large weakness off safe haven scattering. Bringing us back to the ema’s and the resistance levels of 102.70
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – An inside seller bar and resistance held, no thanks to the Russian player. Him aside I still expect this to retrace somewhat in coming days.
Resistance: 1,350/1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040


David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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