David Long

Expecting data to push market direction

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Forex Market Analysis – with David Long and Knowledge to Action

Last week was the week of Central Bankers, this week is the raw data they look at, starting with a whole bunch of manufacturing PMI today. So the markets will have some directional pushes from the data but not too volatile, ie good trading opportunities abound, starting with the Aussie and using disciplined Forex market analysis . The Loonie also looks to gain as the greenback retraces the gains from AGSP3’s comments. As predicted her minions were out last week trying to repair the damage, but doing it poorly. Over in the Ukraine, all seems to be smooth now and the volatility around those headlines are historical now.

Will be watching the data flow to judge how the economic zones are performing. US is going well, Japan is still weak, Euro is slowly picking up and the UK has had a few hiccups but all in the natural cycle of growth. Canada put out some good figures on Friday, is it enough to strengthen the Loonie substantially? We shall see. Remember, the currency price is the barometer of a nation’s economy (when not manipulated by Central Bank intervention), so a stronger economy equals a stronger currency.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Chinese, French, German, European and USA Manufacturing PMI.

AUDUSD – A good strong day and swing low off the 50ema. Looking to take this long today as each cycle is making HH’s.
Resistance: 9085/9167/9300
Support: 8900/8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – An inside nothing day really but it did hold above the support level. A HHHL in today’s bar tomorrow morning and we can look at this as potential entry.
Resistance: 14050/14260/14320
Support: 13740/13488

GBPUSD – A LHLL as disparity between the greenback and pound diverged, the pound had a good run and funds are heading elsewhere for the time being. Still on minor support so could turn from here. Will wait.
Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD –Inside test bar gives nothing away, however we are still in phase 2 pullback to the 50ema.
Resistance: 8676/8842
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Got some attention from retail sales on Friday which produced a ring high. No exhaustion or divergence of the buyers yet so there is some upside left in this move.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10859/10715

USDJPY – Not much to go on here, fundamentally I would prefer to be a buyer, but technically we have a cycle under the ema, ema resistance, horizontal resistance and price falling from them both with a LHLL.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Strong retracement to the ema and still some downside left. Expect support at 1307 to be tagged this week.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040

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