Forex Market News
A fun few days with central bankers, such joy. Janet improving her communication skills says she cannot give a timeline for any rate rise (much better) whilst Draghi said next month could be the date for stimulus.
So to lay them all out for you; in the “we are weak and need stimulus or more of it” camp, we have Kuroda at the BOJ and Draghi at the ECB.
We have stimulus but are keeping the status quo because it’s all good, is Carney at the BOE.
Rates are on hold but we are leaning to the negative still because we are unsure which way we will go, is Poloz at the BOC and Steven’s at the RBA.
We have stimulus but things are improving so we are reducing the stimulus, is Yellen at the US Fed.
Whilst under the Long White Cloud, Wheeler is raising rates and talking of intervention to slow the economy down.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Canadian Unemployment.
AUDUSD – Improving full time jobs data saw further buying in the Aussie, and slowly the economy is turning. The slash budget next week will improve things, eventually. We need to tighten the belts after the idiocy of Labor’s mad 6 year spending spree. The government and media have not hidden the fact this budget will hurt a lot of areas, so I do not think the market will be spooked by it, its pretty well documented out there. And with all the hype the market has held up. So, perhaps its time to change the tune on the Aussie, although I am not yet convinced that fair value is above 95 cents.
EURUSD – A fun night trading this range, tested 1.40 before Draghi came to the podium and overturned the trough the bulls had been feasting on.
GBPUSD – No change of stance from Mark, so the cable was left to its own devices. Being overbought and long term resistance barring the way, the bears stepped in and we are now in the pullback. A LHLL today will confirm this.
NZDUSD – The overvalued Kiwi will struggle to regain the recent highs. I see much chopping ahead for it, but looking at 84 as a potential target area.
USDCAD – Strong data overnight saw the 38.2% fib retested at 1.0802. I have said I like Loonie strength but I think against the greenback it may struggle. A break through 1.06 will change things though. Next few sessions will be key.
USDJPY – Russia pullback its drive for Kiev and talks are again on the table, so it is with some surprise the Yen is trading sideways still.
GOLD – Gold at least is watching the Ukrainian border and sold off. Emas are flat and support close so will be watching with interest if it can get through.