David Long

Unrest in Ukraine and the carry trade – April the 11th, 2014

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Not much out in the way of headlines overnight, civil unrest in the Ukraine continues but little else is hitting the wires. I wrote yesterday that the FOMC minutes should reverse the slide in the US dollar and what has been happening since Aunty Janet let it slip that rates would be up sooner rather than later. Since that fateful day the interest rate market has had some big moves and unwinding the “carry trade” in FX markets has been dominating   Other Fed officials have come out and said that this timeline of Yellen’s is ambitious and the minutes showed how fervent the discussion was on how to communicate it to the market place. This unwind will see the greenback gain some strength moving into next week so I expect to see the majors topping out now or soon.


It’s Friday and we are on Bali time. Supagirl has been super busy running her operation here, and we have both had a string of friends and family staying or popping in. All of them wanting to taste the best of the islands offers. From cleansing ceremonies to fine dining, from trekking up volcanoes to chilling in a cool beach club’s infinity pool, shopping or simply catching up for a drink. All in all it can get exhausting but is good fun and great to see them slip out of the first world cloth of stress and angst. Watching the shoulders straighten, smiles widening and eyes relaxing is worth it. So, I say to you, it is important to reenergize your body and soul in any way you can. Take the weekend and give yourself some you time. It helps sharpen the focus required to be successful at what you do and love. Stretch yourself too thin and you will underperform in everything you do. Enough dribbling from me now, go out and enjoy.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Chinese CPI. US PPI & Consumer Sentiment. EU (Sunday) Draghi speaks

AUDUSD – Tagged resistance and reversed, am getting ready to sell. It seems the media refuses to acknowledge that we lost 22,000 real jobs. 40k part time jobs is not something to get excited about. A part time job in the ABS world is a few hours a week! I certainly am not buying into it. That along with Chinese data and I am a short term bear.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9300/9085/8900/8654

EURUSD – Is still running and not showing signs of stopping yet. The other majors are at their end or near it but the euro is not, it was a late starter so has some catching up to do.
Resistance: 14050/14260/14320
Support: 13646/13565/13488

GBPUSD – Also looking to sell this as resistance level too strong and forming a double top at the same time as momentum hitting overbought. 
Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – Decidedly weak now. Has been a strong trend/move so I will wait for today’s bar to complete and if sellers are still prevalent will join them on Monday.
Resistance: 8676/8842
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Bullish inside bar brings the Loonie back above support but it is not the ideal trade setup for this yet.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10953/10859/10715

USDJPY – Really has been chopping either side of the ema, bouncing a few times of long term support of 101.40. Will wait this one out.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.40/100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Minor horizontal level of 1320 resisted gold’s little bull run, for now.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040

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