David Long

The Long View, 27th May 2013

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Sorry for not posting last week, things got a little busy and I was glad to have the weekend come. Stunning Sunday for sailing but not a puff of air meant a DNF by the whole field. Great management by the officials!

Will be a quiet start to this week, with the markets taking a breather at the end of last week. As well we have market holidays in the UK and USA. The SPI (Aussie stock index) will rally as it often does on a US holiday. No news out today apart from the minutes from BOJ. So it will be technically driven today.

Technically the VIX pulled back slightly as the S&P500 tested and bounced from support of 1635. The CRB tracked lower as copper continued to falter, although off recent lows of 3.05 copper is trading weaker at 3.30. Softs also closed last weak much weaker as did oil.

So there is little direction to be garnered by these moves. A lack of headlines to give us an idea of sentiment also gives us no indications, so let’s look at the levels.

AUDUSD –A complete rout and we are back to where we were almost to the day. 1st June 2012 saw a bounce from 9582 and we tried to bounce off this level again last week. Still it is hard to find committed buyers and sentiment in the price action is very definitely bearish. Whilst RSI is diverging which indicates that the selling pressure is waning, I am not going to buy until I see others doing it first.
Resistance: 9850/9930/1.00
Support: 9620/9582/9400

EURUSD – Kinda sick of writing about $1.30 for the Euro, but it hasn’t gone far from it for 3 months now. Another high test of it on Friday, and the 50ema as well. I am looking for today to be a lower high and lower low to setup for a short trade.
Resistance: 13000/13040/13112
Support: 12880/12750/12655/12500

GBPUSD –$1.50 held on as strong support and it appears to have found more buyers on Friday. Whilst I am still bullish the cable I cannot deny the bearish trend since Jan 1st and should be looking for short trades as it cycles back to the 50ema.
Resistance: 15200/15410/15606
Support: 15080/15000/14800

NZDUSD –Since finding the floor of 8050 and ceiling of 8211 the kiwi has posted lower highs and mixed lows. Therefore range bound with a bear tendency.
Resistance: 8211/8360/8475
Support: 8050/7913/7815

USDCAD –Buyers are still here but cannot push it through 1.04 for last few sessions. A pullback to 10250 might see the buyers come in strong enough to do so.
Resistance: 1.0400/10448/10516
Support: 10287/10184/10100

USDJPY – For those of you who like channels this has been in a good one since 11th Feb (click on chart below) and I will be looking for buying off the trend line, horizontal level and 50ema.
Resistance: 101.71/102.53/104.10
Support: 100.00/98.52/9670

Financial freedom

GOLD –Not much has changed since I last wrote. Gold is lost but I would be playing this from the short side still.
Resistance: 1425/1440/1477/1525
Support: 1320/1248/1100


Kind Regards

David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager
Knowledge to Action – Specialist Forex Education

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