David Long

The Flying L Trader – September the 30th

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The greenback continues to slide, in particular against the Yen and Cable. It seems that the impasse over the US budget has reached a point that headlines are now openly saying it will shut the US government down. Gold also is benefiting as it pushes back up from recent support. Stocks had a mixed result on Friday in a quiet session void of market news.

I don’t see the US shutting down. They will raise the debt ceiling, worst case would be raising it enough to assure all budget requirements, then Uncle Ben will continue to print well beyond his original targets. House of cards comes to mind. Umm isn’t that some new show starring Kevin Spacey? Wonder if it is about Uncle Ben, or his mentor Greenspan.

Speaking of bad managers, tomorrow we have Glenn Stevens. There is little chance of a rate cut and recent headlines are screaming of housing bubbles already. Don’t they love to feed on fear. He won’t be raising rates at all. What we will be watching is for the change in he’s stance, has he moved his weight from left hip to right? Has he become less accommodative, bearish rates? It is all in the wording of the statement at 230pm tomorrow.

On the water, was a ding dong battle in 35knt gusts. We had some rookie ladies on board who managed to let the main sail go before we even attached it to mast and with high winds it is agony to get up. After that issue we had jib wrap around the forestay and tangle the sheets. Whilst fixing this we went through the gate last before finally getting the jib up and grabbing two places as we headed to the heads. Then fun really started with the gusts and swirling wind had us spinning like a top and heading to the rocks of North Head, broached twice and had one of the rookie girls dangling over the side. Dragged her back on, time for a swim later miss, and got boat back on track. In the violent gybing I managed to get my foot in a place it shouldn’t have been and snapped a toe and sprained the ankle. Anyway, off shore we went, last out of the heads in 8th place. At the 5mile mark we turned back for home having closed the gap remarkably and now in 6th. As we screamed back in at 12knts, battered, soaked and bruised we limped across the line in 2nd place. Not a bad result considering the crazy start.
Then I watched the Wallabies…and that is all I will say about that.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU ANZ biz confidence. Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI. CAD GDP.

AUDUSD– Getting close to buying territory but looking at the other majors, they seem to be rolling over, can the Aussie bounce as they fall? Not likely so I will watch with interest.
Resistance: 9390/9527/9576
Support: 9300/9215/9138

EURUSD – Gapped 30pips down on open this morning but essentially has been sideways for a week. Getting some momentum being worn off which could show diversion and a sell off ahead. Or is will we leg up over 1.36.
Resistance: 13545/13644/13700
Support: 13400/13236/13100

GBPUSD – No gap like the euro but it does have same picture being painted over last week with momentum.
Resistance: 16180/16300/16390
Support: 15890/15755/15610/15420

NZDUSD – It is not going to make it higher as I thought last week. If it makes a lower low today it will capitulate back to the ema’s.
Resistance: 8392/8432/8480
Support: 8160/8100/8050

USDCAD – Another high test and LHLL and the buying sentiment is not here so my position is looking as tenuous as the lass on Saturday as she slid overboard. Stop is now breakeven.
Resistance: 10420/10555/10673
Support: 10195/10100/10000

USDJPY – Big gap down this morning of 60pips but still not any interest for me. I just can’t see any entries now, recently or getting close.
Resistance: 100.00/100.70/101.20/102.56
Support: 9690/9580/9497

GOLD – Moving higher slowly as headlines from the hill in Washington indicate more debt for the yanks ahead.
Resistance: 1350/1,425/1,489/1525
Support: 1307/1,266/1225

David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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