Uneventful weekend sees little change on the open this morning. UK did go off daylight savings, however that only pushes their session to start at 7pm Sydney time now. The USA goes off this weekend ahead and that will change the open times, remember that currency open/close times are 5pm New York.
Data and releases are of little interest until Thursday morning (Sydney time, Wednesday evening in NY) when we have the statement from the 2 day FOMC meeting. There will be much supposition and predictions from people who write/talk and think that others read/listen hahaha. Most pundits have it that the Fed will not taper this month. Whichever the case the markets will be on tenterhooks leading up to it. I think that the market is and will continue to price in no change to rates or let up to the printing presses. I was sent a little video of how the monetary system works in the USofA, I will post it later today, worth a watch to understand the system. Anyway, as I was saying, the value of the greenback is crashing and as Ben continues to print it will continue to slide and we are seeing that in the charts. On the flip side, the free money is being pumped into the stock market with ridiculous prices being attained for very little value. Earnings are far below stock value in the US. The house of cards is being stacked higher.
I don’t like being doom and gloom but I do think that the US are being irresponsible, even the Europeans are reining in their debt slowly. The yanks on the other hand are pushing the ceiling and friendships too far in their stereotypical ignorance.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – US Pending home sales.
AUDUSD – An inside seller bar and as I said last week, this will track lower until Thursday, perhaps it could go sideways too, but it will be far from a buyers market prior to FOMC.
EURUSD – Momentum is flattening out as price fails to make significant higher highs. Still, it is a HHHL. But also a doji bar, so the market is on the buy side but not convinced it should go higher. This to me says do not buy today, but look for sellers coming into the market and go with them.
GBPUSD – HHHL but bearish bar. Just chopping about looking for direction like the €. In the meantime as it moves sideways it is wearing off the buying momentum. When that builds again it could well crack the 1.63.
NZDUSD – A complete bearish bar as the kiwi maintains its phase 2 wave back to support levels. No sign of buyers and with a holiday across the Tasman today I doubt we will find any today.
USDCAD – Oil bounced a little but with the central bank in Canada looking at lowering rates the slide in the Loonie continues, unlike its peers, it is weakening faster than the greenback. A retest of support level on lower time frame could provide an entry on it.
USDJPY – Oh really? Another swing? Hmmm ok. The most interesting thing going on over there is Abe’s military posturing against China. That is like a Chihuahua attempting to frighten a Wolf. Good luck with that.
GOLD – Was asleep at the wheel and missed the hourly swing off the 50ema Friday arvo/night. Daily it is HHHL and looking good to break through 1350 this week. Will be more vigilant for another entry opportunity.
David Long / Proprietary Trading Manager