The load of PMI figures yesterday showed little surprises. Summary, China still growing, Frogs going backwards, Germans growing, Europe growing, US growing. There you have it in a nutshell. We know that UK is growing too and the Japs are also busy getting off the stagnation line. Even here at home this weeks CPI figure shows we are growing too. Not all is rosy tho as the developing nations are now slowing down. This is due to the huge shift of free funds that Ben, Mario and Mervyn (ret) flooded the world with to prop up their poxy economies. During the 09 – 11 years most of these funds went to these developing nations (much better return their then in their homelands) such as China, Thailand, Mexico, Philippines, India, Indonesia, Brasil etc. This was allowed by Ben et al because they could not control what they started or how it was spent, although Mervyn was a little more controlled. Then late last year and in earnest this year these funds have shifted back to the old world and “1st”world of Europe and US (although it could be argued that USA is close to being a banana republic), leaving the developing nations cashless to continue developing. Hence their faltering and reduced consumption. See the mess one creates when one fakes it??? If nature was allowed to flow, then organically would these developing nations progress and the 1st world would have to tighten their belts for a number of years, the price to pay for their excess of the naughties.
OK, rant done. Ahead is a quiet day and do not expect much to happen, let the markets move themselves. Not much data out next week, but next Thursday morning Sydney is the big one, FOMC so do expect a reasonably quiet market with little volatility leading up to that.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – German Biz Climate. UK GDP. US Durable Goods.
AUDUSD – LHLL “doji” bar but sentiment is still pulling the Aussie back towards the buying area of mid 94’s. Looking for this to run down slowly, messily until FOMC
EURUSD – A HHHL of all things and closed right on resistance. Will be interesting to see if it can maintain this height, Icarus.
GBPUSD – Inside buyer bar which is more reasonable than their brethren across the channel. Still, it could go higher from here and test 1.63 before falling back to the mean.
NZDUSD – LHLL’s and starting to behave as it should, am targeting mid 82’s for my trade but will watch price action first and foremost, this could hit 80 in this run.
USDCAD – Friggin Loonatics! Is now doing what I expected in September. Oh well, I made a little on it. It did test and close under resistance. That is little comfort and expect this now to test year highs.
USDJPY – 40 pips anyone? That was the range yesterday, have fun with that. The longer this sleeps the more exciting the ride will be once it does wake up. I see nothing to wake me up yet.
GOLD – A test of resistance overnight is interesting, starting to see entry opportunities now. A bounce in the hourly off the 50ema could be worth a small percentage of my capital.
David Long / Proprietary Trading Manager