Thanksgiving for more than the first harvest in a new land, let’s give thanks that this month is over, that this week has been calm, that the central bankers have been mute, that the markets are coming back into synch. Best do it now because next week is as busy as an ants before a storm! Next week as per normal first week of the month we have 4 central bank’s monetary policy announcements from Australia, Canada, England and Europe. Thrown into the mix is speeches from AGSP2, the vote for AGSP3 (did you see AG himself come out and say that the DOW at 16,000 is not overvalued!!). All of that along with some high impact data news too, a fun run into Christmas!
Hear in Australia we have Glenn-“6 months behind the curve”-Stevens still trying to drive down our currency and rates with some effect, yet in the UK overnight there is Teflon Carney is cautiously planning an exit of their quantitative easing, moving away from his predecessor’s position of printing cash. Wish we had Carney in our bank, smart man. The cable, as a currency should, has being bolting north. A currency’s price is a direct reflection of the health and value of an economy. Those who stand to drive down a currency’s price do not understand the effect of destabilising confidence and investment. Stevens is our worst governor to date.
Anyways, have a great final day of a rubbish month and fabulous weekend.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – EUR CPI. CAD GDP and on Sunday Chinese Manufacturing PMI.
AUDUSD – The little battler is vainly trying to turn north. It is the worst performer against the greenback this year, down 13%, poor little bugger. I am having to give up on my parity call by Christmas, it just aint gonna happen. Fundamentally we should not be here, yet when the US Fed do taper we will be under huge pressure to retain money in this country as yield hunters will flock back to the US market. If we are under 90cents at that point we will be touching 80cents quickly and potentially even be looking at 60 and that is scary and saddening. Ruin a country why don’t you Kev, Wayne and Glenn!
EURUSD – Slowly inching higher as funds flow into the euro thanks to strong German data indicating that the ECB will not have to increase/extend their LTRO or lower rates next week.
GBPUSD – See what positive data and a positive stance from the BOE Governor can do for a currency?! It has pushed the cable through a major resistance level. The pound is looking top heavy against all crosses though and may not stay/be up here for long, but the trend is established and after a pullback would continue north.
NZDUSD – Like the Aussie is struggling. A messy chart though and I don’t see much opportunity in it but do expect it to be in the mid to low 70’s.
USDCAD – An inside day as the North Americans holiday there wasn’t much action about.
USDJPY – Still weakening against the greenback, against all currencies actually. However, indicators are all showing signs of exhaustion so as soon as price indicates exhaustion too there will be an opportunity.
GOLD – Is not doing a hell of a lot, I think people are more interested in BITCOIN as an alternative investment with gold for the die hards or jewellery.