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The Flying L Trader, July the 18th 2013

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Ben didn’t say anything new, just that the data will determine when he will slow the purchasing of bonds down. It will also determine if he needs to maintain or increase the rate of purchases:

“We’re going to be responding to the data,” Bernanke said today to the House Financial Services Committee. “If the data are stronger than we expect, we’ll move more quickly” to reduce purchases. If data “don’t meet the kinds of expectations we have about where the economy’s going, then we would delay that process or potentially increase purchases for a time.”

We already knew all of this. So, move along, nothing to see here. Therefore the US$ will remain weak and stocks will continue to rally. US stocks had small gains on the back of Ben and positive earnings announcements on what turned out to be a tame and quiet night.

Ben is having another session tonight but nothing will come of this. Little other data out too until next week so the markets will have to work without headlines to drive them. ABOUT BLOOMING TIME I SAY! Bring it on. Let traders do the age old practice of price discovery, politicians as we know (hint hint Bernanke and you too Rudd and your ETS) are useless at doing so.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 630pm UK Retail Sales. 12am US Philly Fed

AUDUSD –Managed to post a HH/HL albeit an apathetic bar in doji formation. I still get the sense from the price action that it is struggling to attract true buying power, it’s as if it’s scared to punch higher. I am still on the sidelines on the battler.

Resistance: 9390/9435/9590
Support: 8985/8760/8850

EURUSD –Also a HH/HL but a seller bar and I am not going to take a trade in these conditions. Wait for the market to decide a trend then I will get on board as it starts. Right now I cannot see which way that trend will go.
Resistance: 13200/13400/13700
Support: 13040/13000/12750

GBPUSD –Had some so so data out in unemployment but the results from MPC showed the Poms that Carney is a good decision to lead the BOE and the cable ran on the news. Price ran to tag the 50ema and a minor resistance line I have at 1.5270 and closed above another at 1.52. Being under all the ema’s it could turn south here. As you know I am bullish but I still want to be aware of change in sentiment.
Resistance: 15270/15370/15405
Support: 15080/15000/14800

NZDUSD – Knock knock…hello? I kid. A stronger bar than the Aussie and closer to the 50ema so will be looking at this tomorrow for potential short opportunities.

Resistance: 7965/8125/8170
Support: 7710/7658/7458

USDCAD –A LHLL so I have moved my stop to be below this bar at 10350. Price did close higher though and above the long term down trend. Am still confident the Loonie will behave and fly higher.
Resistance: 10420/10597/10657/10706
Support: 10345/10287/10100

USDJPY – An inside bar and complete indifference. Will leave it alone. Remember, if the market cannot make a decision on which way it wishes to trade, why should I/we/you?
Resistance: 9980/102.53/104.10
Support: 9872/9497/9415

GOLD – A bearish engulfing bar and nothing to trade on either. Did finally touch 1300 but held above support too. Nothing day on this.
Resistance: 1,321/1,425/1489
Support: 1,226/1,160/1,000

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