The Flying L Trader, July the 4th 2013

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Happy 4th of July to all the Americans out there!

Will be a tricky day today with US public holiday and central bank announcements in Europe and UK. Egyptian military coup is also testing markets nerve but the most effected on that front is oil, therefore USDCAD will have biggest move. Also the US NFP is looming and headlines keep pointing that out, thanks guys. The more you talk about it the more likely it will be fulfilled, it is that simple.

Glen Steven’s woke up to that fact, that sentiment is depressed. It’s because Glen, you are depressing and you have constantly talked down our economy, reap what you sow mate. No markets are talking about AUDUSD hitting 80c. Well, if enough people talk about it, guess what is going to happen? 80c will trade. Remember the health of a currency is the gauge of the health of an economy.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 1130am AU Building Approvals. 9pm UK MONETARY POLICY AND INTEREST RATES/ASSET PURCHASES. 945pm EU INTEREST RATES. 1030pm EU ECB Conference.

AUDUSD –A short trend continuation bar, seller not bearish. A lot of hype around it being from Glen’s speech and that could be true. Personally, now that he has actually come out and spoken about it, to me now is the time to buy it. With clear RSI divergence I will be looking for buying strength coming in. The risk is Uncle Ben ruining the party and the US NFP coming out a strong number forcing the US$ higher.
Resistance: 9138/9390/9435
Support: 8985/8760/8850

EURUSD –Low test bar off trend line, 78.6% fib and closed above €1.30. Chop chop. ECB tonight and whilst there is little chance of a cut or change in asset purchase program, the usual suspects are being rounded up again with Portugal and Greece both creeping back into headlines for all the wrong fiscal reasons. This may be addressed in tonight’s conference.
Resistance: 13176/13400/13480/13520
Support: 12950/12830/12750

GBPUSD –Bullish engulfing bar and bounce off trend line but one bar does not make a trend so we are still in bear mode until a higher high is printed. New governor Carney at the BOE tonight so people are keen to see how he will handle things at his debutante coming out conference.
Resistance: 15370/15610/15755
Support: 15200/15000/14800

NZDUSD – Bored yet? I am. Not even double inside bar to get a trade off. Maybe a break below 7650 might get exciting.
Resistance: 7815/8125/8170/8358
Support: 7658/7458/7375

USDCAD –As thought, sellers came in yesterday, but it was just an inside bar. Even though a very bearish bar it still couldn’t make a new low
Resistance: 10597/10657/10706
Support: 10450/10287/10100

USDJPY – An engulfing bar that closed on right on halfway and on the support of 100. This has given us a retest of that level. If it gives a cycle above the 50ema on the hourly chart today I will look at taking an entry as it bounces into new phase 1 away from 50ema.
Resistance:102.53/104.10/105.60
Support: 9872/9497/9415

GOLD – Sideways action as everyone awaits the NFP. Still I would prefer to be selling rallies.
Resistance: 1,270/1,321/1,425
Support: 1,226/1,160/1,000

David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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