The Flying L Trader – July the 29th

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So, what has happened on Friday night and the weekend? Well, two brilliant games of rugby were played. Exciting running ruby and deserved of semi-finals. Onto the final next week in Hamilton NZ with the Chiefs hosting the Brumbies from Canberra on Saturday evening. Looking forward to that!

In the markets, stocks were flat in a lacklustre session across the board and VIX was off 1.9% as investors took in mixed company earnings and results. Commodities were negative on the CRB Index at -0.85%, notably copper was down 2.5%.

News wise there was nothing of note, apart from the Chinese Industrial Profits. This came in at +6.3% for June, but May was +15.5% so that might put the wind up the Aussie and give some weakness tomorrow morning. However, I do like what the Chinese central bank is doing to stimulate China without bringing in a Bernanke style quantitative easing policy.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 950am JPY Retail Sales. 12am US Pending home sales.

AUDUSD –A higher high and still frothing about, and it is becoming boring to watch. The open could be interesting however I am not taking a trade until I can see a clear direction, and that I cannot see right now.
Resistance: 9390/9435/9590
Support: 9138/8985/8760

EURUSD – An inside doji bar, can you get a market with a complete lack of commitment? Sure, here it is. The euro is still in uptrend but Fridays’ bar is a print that shows traders lack of interest or apathy.
Resistance: 13400/13700/14260
Support: 13040/13000/12750

GBPUSD – Read the same above. Also remember, if the market cannot decide what it wants to do, how can we be expected to? I have no crystal ball, nor pockets deep enough to push the market so I must wait for the market to tell me what it is doing. Inside doji’s tell me nada. Not doing anything to my orders in this environment.
Resistance: 15405/15608/15750
Support: 15270/15080/15000

NZDUSD – Guess what? It’s an inside bar…again…I know I know…I am being repetitive (sic). The little kiwi at least was not a doji. Will acknowledge that at least, still its not an indication of trend yet.
Resistance: 8100/8125/8170
Support: 7815/7710/7658

USDCAD – Yup, an inside bar, a high test in MT4, still an inside bar though.
Resistance: 10315/10420/10597
Support: 10225/10100/10000

USDJPY – Finally some action! The fact that all the other crosses did a sweet FA day and this did not is a sign of a strengthening ¥. Stopped me out on the euroyen cross. Broke below recent low. I am surprised with the strength in yen. A break below 94 would indicate the uptrend is well and truly over.
Resistance: 102.53/104.10/105.60
Support: 9872/9497/9415

GOLD – Is hanging onto the 50ema as if life itself depended on it. For the gold bulls that could well be the case. I would prefer to be looking for shorts, however if it can cycle above the ema I will acquiesce and join in the buying of the yellow metal.
Resistance: 1354/1,425/1,489/
Support: 1307/1,226/1,160

David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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