A very quiet night, small moves as market awaits the long list of data today. Not even something to rant about! Dear me, best get straight to the technicals then. Looking at them it seems the US dollar is deteriorating still, driving all the majors and minors.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 1130am AU CPI. 1145am Chinese Manufacturing PMI. 5pm French Manufacturing PMI. 530pm German Manufacturing PMI. 11pm US Manufacturing PMI. 12am US New Home Sales. 7am NZ Interest Rates and Monetary Statement.
AUDUSD –Another HH/HL as the Aussie inches back up the scale to catch its 50ema. Was a whippy session yesterday and I am not keen to be involved in it from either side of the ledger. Will be looking to sell around the 9390 area, if we get there.
EURUSD – Broke through 1.32 and held as it posted a Higher High/Higher Low (HH/HL). Will leave my stop as is for the moment as I don’t want to get taken out on the volatility around the data this afternoon. Still looking at 1.34 or higher as target for this trade.
GBPUSD – Looking good but 1.54 did not get tagged yet. Have this trade in two accounts and on the more conservative account I have moved the stop to 1.5220, 50 pips under support of 1.5270, locking in 260 pips. The other account will leave stop as is. Still trending up and no sign of sellers yet.
NZDUSD – Blow me dry and call me dusty, the Kiwi’s a trending! Finally has broken out of the rubbish and above resistance levels and 80¢. Not yet would I buy it though, I would need a complete cycle above the 50ema before I got bullish. Still favour looking for shorting opportunities. Could trade it long on the shorter timeframes if one was so inclined and needed to scratch their FOMO. I will pass though thanks.
USDCAD – Broken down and heading to trend line around 10250. Like the Kiwi I would prefer to be trading this long on day timeframe but you could get short on the lower timeframe cycles as it is posting a nice looking trend.
USDJPY – A nice Ding-Dong-Battle going on b/w ¥ & $ and my stop held on by 3 pips, for the time being. A LH/LL and high test would suggest the $ is winning but the ¥ is not trending like the other majors so it is holding above the 50ema tenaciously. If you are not in it there is zero entries right now.
GOLD – I am starting to turn the corner on this. I am not hopping into bed with the doomsayers but the trend is starting to convince me that I should be a part of it. If it can crack 1400 and complete a cycle above the ema, give me an entry signal I will be on the bandwagon of gold bulls. Not to get ahead of the market though, that could take weeks to form.
David Long / Proprietary Trading Manager