David Long

The Flying L Trader, July the 12th 2013

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As we figured, the stock markets had a happy time after Ben, here are the results:
Sydney up 1.3%, Hong Kong 2.5%, Japan 0.4%, Euro 0.8%, Germany 1.1%, London 0.6%, Dow 1.1% and S&P 1.3%.
Other markets, crude down, gold and copper up, soft commodities also up.
Not bad uh. Note the S&P500 cash index closed at record highs this morning. Thanks Benny, you the man mate.

Here in Australia, the unemployment figures were mixed. Net we added 10K jobs, but look deeper. We lost 4K full time jobs (the more productive workers) and added 15K part time jobs. The rate increased slightly to 5.7% but this is due to more people looking for work, 17K. So in short, not nasty but nothing to crow about either. I don’t read our tabloid broadsheets or watch infotainment on channel 7/9/10 news but I guess they would be screaming doom n gloom at the uptick in rate from 5.7% from 5.6%. Stupid as they are it might push voters to get rid of Rudd. However, historically 5.7 or 5.6% unemployment is great. So please don’t listen to the hype.

Ahead we have a welcome breather from major economic announcements and headlines today/tonight after the hectic week we’ve had. May you all go out and enjoy the well-earned weekend and why not go celebrate Bastille Day.

 DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 1130am AU Home loans. 1030pm US PPI

AUDUSD –The little Aussie is sick. It benefited from Ben for a few hours and even after the jobs data but once it hit 93 sellers have come back into it. Having tagged the 20ema (only the 2nd time since early May) we reversed back down. Whilst it held the fib level at 9138 there are few buyers left to hold its interest and it looks like it could touch 90¢ before it touches the 50ema.

Resistance: 9390/9435/9590
Support: 8985/8760/8850

EURUSD –What a cracking 2 bars, over 400 pips. Love it! Don’t love the lack of direction though. Like the cable it may as well be called range bound, between 1.28 and 1.34. Settled down after Bens to be above the (now) ancient support levels of 1.30 and 1.3040. Not going to trade off these bars though, will leave to next week.
Resistance: 13200/13400/13700
Support: 13040/13000/12750

GBPUSD –Has more buying in it than most others having settled after the initial euphoria and then went to make a higher high (view hour chart). A cycle back to the 50ema on the hourly, or low 1.51’s, and I will add more cable into my portfolio.
Resistance: 15200/15270/15405
Support: 1.5000/14800/14665/14250

NZDUSD – There is your cycle to the 50ema, touch of 61.8% fib 79.65 (14th Jun high to recent lows) and end of phase 1. Looks to be setting up for another run down.

Resistance: 7965/8125/8170
Support: 7710/7658/7458

USDCAD –Has also completed its cycle back to the ema. I am hesistant to look at this going long again just yet. Oil’s over extension and roll over could weaken the Loonie.
Resistance: 10420/10597/10657/10706
Support: 10345/10287/10100

USDJPY – Having tagged the 50ema it closed above the halfway mark of the day’s range. In eSignal the halfway was 98.76 and it closed at 99.02. So technically a low test but like the Loonie I am not looking at buying the yen, nor selling it just yet.
Support: 9872/9497/9415

GOLD – Couldn’t tag 1300 and I suspect it will be a quiet day in gold today. 1300 topside with 1270 downside as its range.
Resistance: 1,321/1,425/1489
Support: 1,226/1,160/1,000

David Long

Proprietary Trading Manager


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