The Flying L Trader – December the 12th

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Today is the last report for 2013 and I thank you for reading my words. I do hope you all enjoyed and found it informative, maybe even helpful. I find it cathartic and it helps me focus. Have a wonderful festive season doing whatever it is you do with your loved ones.

Overnight was relatively quiet with the German inflation steady, Chinese money supply steady and the US budget agreed on. Stocks continued their slide and commodities gave back some of their recent gains. There is a slow move of funds into safe havens as the stock market’s slide becomes more entrenched and VIX climbs steadily. Most of this flow is into the ¥ and Swissy at the moment with the markets avoiding the greenback.

The Pound, the Loonie and the Yen and their respective crosses are all over extended and in overbought territory and I can see them rolling over now, coming back to their median price, the 50ema. The Euro is a mixed bag but against the greenback it too has reached extension and resistance although there is still some momentum in the move yet. The Aussie too is oversold down here but I do not see it recovering back above 94¢ this year. The Kiwi is lost.

The greenback had a minor win overnight.

The US Fed to continue to mess with the markets well into 2014.

The carry trade (the chase for higher yielding currencies) is getting tough for some.

 

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU Unemployment data. EU ECB President Draghi speaks. Swiss MONETARY POLICY. US Retail sales. CA BOC Governor Speaks.

AUDUSD – Just as it was finding some support the little battler got slammed again. Looks like it will be fairly choppy conditions ahead.
Resistance: 9300/9428/9532
Support: 9000/8890/8550

EURUSD – Is coming onto resistance and momentum is in overbought territory but not showing signs yet of slowing down. I do expect to see it roll in days to come though, the greenback is picking up steam.
Resistance: 13830/14065/14257
Support: 13620/13488/13266

GBPUSD – A natural pullback in the market as it had gone too far, plus overnight a minor central bank figure from Old Blighty said inflation had dropped off which indicates that the APP would be around for a bit longer.
Resistance: 16474/16610/16740
Support: 16300/15950/15830/15755

NZDUSDNo change to rates under the long white cloud. The chart is creating havoc for me. I would like to short it but there is no traction in the trend.
Resistance: 8475/8535/8607
Support: 8190/8131/8100

USDCAD – Is slowly working back towards its average price and lower side of the trend. There is support at 10420 which may halt its slide but I am becoming bullish the Loonie against all its peers.

Resistance: 10673/10830/10985
Support: 10420/10195/10100/10000

USDJPY – Now we have sellers and momentum divergence we should get the pullback into my buy zone. I do want to be short ¥ and will look to take this long on the retest of 100.
Resistance: 103.10/104.65/105.57
Support: 100.00/9690/9580/9497

GOLD – Is really choppy and like the Aussie is getting hit by new sellers on any rally. One to avoid for the time being.
Resistance: 1265/1,307/1,350
Support: 1,225/1,180/1,000

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