David Long

The Flying L Trader, 1st of July 2013

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I wonder if the US Fed officials are having fun…First Ben stirs the market up with a potential “tapering in September and he moved the goal post to 7% unemployment, from 6.5%. Then a raft of them came out last week and said, no don’t get ahead of ourselves. Only to have late Friday night when all seemed calm another muppet and voting member come out and say September again…they are having a laugh!

This week is a big one for data with Australian, England and European monetary policy announcements plus some large headline figures with Chinese and US manufacturing PMI’s and US employment.

Here in Australia we are hovering around the 20% chance of a drop to 2.5%. With the Aussie dollar tanking 6 cents (600pips) since last meeting and inflation benign I do not see the RBA being so silly as to lower rates again.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS AHEAD (times are in AEST) – 11am China Manufacturing PMI. 630pm UK Manufacturing PMI. 12am US Manufacturing PMI

AUDUSD –Reversed the mini rally sharply and closed right on support. No sign of buyers and no sell entry available yet.
Resistance: 9390/9435/9585/9650
Support: 9140/8760/8850

EURUSD –Tagged the 50ema before turning and touching the support of 1.3. We are sitting on this right now and the sentiment has to be to the down side and one wishes the Fed would shut the hell up.
Resistance: 13176/13400/13480/13520
Support: 13000/12950/12830

GBPUSD –A string of LH/LL’s shows clear sentiment to the downside, support is holding it, just.
Resistance: 15370/15610/15755
Support: 15200/15000/14800

NZDUSD – Still tracking sideways, between 77 and 78 cents.
Resistance: 7815/8125/8170/8358
Support: 7658/7458/7375

USDCAD –Rather like the kiwi the other bird currency is tracking sideway after clearing out my stop.
Resistance: 10597/10657/10706
Support: 10450/10287/10100

USDJPY – Broke out of the range mid Friday and is looking to test the key resistance at 100 today.
Resistance: 100/102.53/104.10/105.60
Support: 9497/9415/9250/9120

GOLD – Lovely bounce and about turn in gold. Considering that to produce an ounce of gold now it costs $1,180 it seems fitting that it bounced off that price. Still, not excited enough to buy long term from here.
Resistance: 1,270/1,321/1,425
Support: 1,226/1,160/1,000

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