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Technical Report – March 19, 2013: EUR/USD Gaps Lower to Start the Week

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EUR/USD: The Euro gapped lower to start the week, and the move is significant because this removes most of the upside progress that was made last week. From a charting perspective, the move is also significant because it means that prices are now contained back within the medium term downtrend channel, and suggests that the rallies last week amounted to a false break. Thus far, prices have printed lows of 1.2880 before bouncing, and this area now marks key support for this week. A break here will confirm th the medium term bias is on the downside. We will need to see a break back above the psychological 1.30 in order to expect the initial gap (back to 1.3050 to be filled. Either way, this area is likely to encounter large selling orders, as the initial bias for the week was generated by the downside gap at the open.

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY has shown price action that is similar to the EUR/USD to start the week. Specifically, prices have shown a strong gap lower, which is suggestive of widespread weakness in the Euro against the rest of the majors. Currently, resistance is found at 123.90, and if we see an upside break here, expect a continuation back to the gap area at 124.20. Prices are likely to have some difficulty in this region, however, as this area was previously a strong level of support (a triple bottom), and is now expected to be strong resistance.

AUD/USD: The AUD/USD continues with its medium term rally but we are now coming into some important resistance levels that could give the pair some trouble later this week. The 61.8% Fib retracement of the move from 1.06 is found at 1.0410. Arguments for an upside break can be found in the fact that the pair did push through its 100/200 period EMA cluster in the 103.20 region. Important support comes in just ahead of this area (at 1.0340), and this area can be used for short term buying positions.

USD/CHF: The USD/CHF has fallen back to support in the 93.80 area after its early moves to the downside, but the overall bias remains to the topside as long as this level holds. Currently, resistance is seen at 95.60 and we will need to see a break here in order to focus on the next short term target, which is the 61.8% Fib retracement of the decline from 99.70, which can be seen at 96.10.


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