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Technical Report – April 2, 2013: Euro Finds New Lows for the Year

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Chart of the Day: EUR/JPY

Tech report 02.04.13

EUR/JPY: The EUR/JPY continues to obey the levels outlined last week, with price failures at 121.70 opening the way for new yearly lows. The EUR/JPY has found small numbers of buyers into support at 119.50 but this is looking like a “dead cat bounce,” as prices have yet to overcome resistance at 120.30. If we do manage to get a bullish push above this level, the next upside target can be found at 120.85. For the week, however, the 121.70 area is still the level to watch on a closing basis. A close below here will essentially signal that negative momentum will be seen throughout April. If we are able to close above 121.70 for the week, the bias turns consolidative.

EUR/USD: The Euro is showing clear downside momentum, as any bounces are being met with active sellers. At this stage, first resistance can be found at 1.2880. This is a level of historical supply as well as the long term trendline which started at the beginning of February. To the downside, support can be found at the new lows for the year. This area comes in at the 1.2760 double bottom and if we see a break here, there is likely to be some increases in volatility as stop losses should send prices quickly below 1.27. Overall, the chart formations to watch can be seen in the monthly downtrend channel and the fact that prices continue to hold below the 100 and 200 day EMAs. If prices are able to break above these areas, traders can start to move into buy on dips strategies.

AUD/JPY: The AUD/JPY is slowly grinding through Fib support at 97.30. This area is support turned resistance as well, so if we lose this area we will start to target further downside into the 61.8% retracement of the same move (now found at 95.70). Upside resistance is now seen at the 100 psychological level.

AUD/USD: The AUD/USD is starting to come into a good looking buy zone, after breaking above the 61.8% Fib retracement of the move from 1.06 (which is seen at 1.0410). First resistance comes in at 1.0495, which major support now seen at 1.0380.





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