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Strong Payrolls, Strong USD

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Forex Market News

US Feb Non-Farm Payrolls Change +295K v +235Ke

US Feb Unemployment Rate 5.5% v 5.6%e

That explains it all!   Strong US data sent the USD higher across the board. The market certainly got what it was looking for, although the wages growth component was slightly disappointing. UST yields rallied, oil traded heavily within recent ranges and gold sold off accordingly as well.  Look for levels to buy USD’s !! it’s that simple.   With a relatively slow start for the USD this week, look for pullbacks and the opportunity to get on board the Dollar Express !!

Some Japanese data this morning has had limited effect on the market with the selloff in US equities Friday night weighing on Asian bourses and stalling potential further USD strength, for now.

DATA AHEAD         –           Eurogroup Meetings, China CPI

EURUSD     –        EUR again wore the full force of the USD rally and continued its dive under 1.09 to trade as low as 1.0850 post payrolls. Monday has again tested new lows holding just above 1.0820.  We’ve moved a long way over the past 7 days, 550pips, with limited pullbacks – and rightly so !!  However, look for pullbacks to 1.0980 – 1.1030 to get short and/or add to shorts !!

Resistance :        1.0980, 1.1030

Support :             1.0820, 1.0770


USDJPY      –         Has continued its strong rally breaking another resistance at 120.80 and breaking above 121.00 !!   Will encounter selling during Asia with Japanese exporters no doubt licking their lips and US equity selloff weighing on the Nikkei. Look for buying opportunities with weak support at 120.45 and buying levels down to 119.40.

Resistance :        121.30, 121.85

Support :             120.45, 119.95, 119.40


AUDUSD       –     After a nasty spike Friday night to 0.7840, its been hammered down to 0.7700. We’ve got a bearish outside reversal bar having broken support levels at 0.7750 and 0.7720.  Has traded heavily Monday with potential commodities recent selloff weighing. Iron Ore off 10% in past 10 days !!

Resistance :        0.7750, 0.7850

Support :             0.7625, 0.7450


GBPUSD     –        Belted 200 pips on Friday, playing some catch up on the USD strength. Has broken through a number of short term support levels, Fibo support at 1.5230 and recent lows at  1.5195.  The phase 2 corrective move certainly over and 1.4950 here we come.

Resistance :        1.5195, 1.5290

Support :             1.4990, 1.4950, 1.4820


NZDUSD      –        A real turnaround last week with talk of the RBNZ potentially implementing restrictions on lending for property investors sending the NZD crashing lower, as the market starts to price the possibility of a cut in rates. 250pips in 2 days for the bird !  The chart looks a lot like the GBP, indicating an end to the phase 2 cyclicity and a continuation of the down trend on the cards. RBNZ on Thursday !!

Resistance :        0.7420, 0.7450

Support :             0.7310, 0.7175


USDSEK !   Money for jam !!  The easy $$$ trades for this week are , ……………………………………..

Good Luck!

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