Forex Market News
Huge day/night of data out today. First though, let’s look at what has happened.
Aunty Janet has gone on record to say she won’t raise rates to battle the increase appetite for risk. This is saying she is worried about the risk and asset bubbles but because her balance sheet is so highly leveraged in the debt market as well she cannot and will not raise rates to slow those bubbles down. She wants to leave that to regulators, now all markets hate increased regulation as this slows down the process of making money and increases the costs of making a dollar. Effectively, she is turning communist. This does not bode well for the US. However, the ADP numbers last night gave a boost to the greenback in the expectations that the NFP tonight will be a good strong number, showing us that the US economy is not slowing as some have recently highlighted. Click to find out more.
So, later today we have the ECB meeting and that is the biggest concern for the moment, although there is heavy hitting data out across the board today. The ECB should go deeper tonight with their offensive on inflation, but I doubt that they will.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Aussie RBA Stevens Speaks & Building approvals + Retail Sales. Chinese Non-manufacturing PMI. UK Services PMI. EUROPEAN Monetary Policy. Canadian Trade Balance. US Non-Farm Payrolls & Non-manufacturing PMI.
AUDUSD – Well, just as everyone was patting themselves on the back for the tag of 95cents the trade data comes out and shows what the fall in iron ore and commodity prices are really doing to our economy Find out more . So, keep an eye out for selling opportunities as in the short term we will head back to 93, maybe even 92. Especially 92 if the NFP tonight is stronger than expectations. From a technical point of view, there is nothing to see today here.
EURUSD – OK, has given us a seller bar/swing high formation. The ECB is unlikely to move again so quickly after their last injection, however, they could come out in the conference after and start to play to the tune they will go deeper soon, this will put pressure on the Euro. Coupled with a rising greenback this is worthwhile looking at.
GBPUSD – Small gains but still a HHHL. Too far gone to buy it, too early to sell it.
NZDUSD – Still waiting for sellers to step in.
USDCAD – Has had a great run but I see this as over. Some data out tonight which I suspect will be good for the Canadians, but not good enough to stop a retracement here for the Loonie. A HHHL in today’s bar will see the pullback confirmed as starting.
USDJPY – Literally this pair has been in a 150 pip range since easter. Boring.