David Long

Risk limited on Ukrain Issues

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Forex Market News


US NFP jumped strongly and then 2 hours later Russia calls for an “extraordinary” UN Security Council meeting in which the proceeded to blame the US for the mess in Kiev. The market reaction to these two events was clearly displayed in the $¥. The yen ran up 55pips to fall 100. Clearly the Ukrainian issue will not go away but the weekend calmed things down a bit and risk seems to be limited.


This week we have important data from China, there is the meetings of the BOE and ECB, as well as Aunty Janet testifies to Congress.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU building approvals. Chinese Manufacturing PMI. US Non-Manufacturing PMI

AUDUSD – A strong test bar off the news as funds flew to the US dollar and then out of it. Again, technically this looks a strong setup, but fundamentally it is not the right trade.
Resistance: 9460/9522
Support: 9270/9085/8900

EURUSD – Still stuck in no man’s land and with the ECB meeting on Thursday I expect it to stay here until then. Draghi may look to construct the battle lines for a lower Euro, he has mentioned it several times in last few months and not done anything, yet. With the currency persistently staying high maybe this is the month he will act.
Resistance: 13890/14050/14260/14320
Support: 13700/13646/13565/13488

GBPUSD – Can’t keep a good thing down. 1.70 is getting close and may prove the hurdle too high for this run.
Resistance: 16820/1.69/1.70
Support: 16660/16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – I read today that the Kiwi’s want a higher dollar, so they have more purchasing power of overseas products and international travel. Unfortunately the government is stuck between this line of thinking and economic reality. The high currency will impact their major economic source, farmers. That there are less farmers than consumers is the problem. But without the farmers, there will be no economic strength and therefore the economy will suffer and so will jobs, and then you can’t travel or spend anyway. Rock and hard place.
Resistance: 8676/8745/8842
Support: 8523/8434/8090

USDCAD – Engulfing bar, that closed mid range, not giving much away and no entry arising.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10953/10859/10715

USDJPY – Did look good, now looks crap. Again not much to see and very little to do.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 101.40/100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Ran higher off minor support of 1278 on the Ukrainian news. Also stuck in no man’s land it would seem.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040


David Long/ Proprietary Trading Manager

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