Forex Market Analysis with David Long and Knowledge to Action
There has been little surprises in data, although weaker Chinese and German PMI’s did spook the market a bit. Germany’s was still well above growth though and Draghi last night mentioned the Euro’s strength (+7% v USD in 12 months) as a hindrance which also saw the Euro jerk about. He also said tho that the economy is doing fine and no need for more stimulus, so that brought the currency back up. Stocks are stronger overnight as investors take the market into the spring rally, and Ukraine is not seen as a problem.
Obama wants it to be a problem though and a ratcheting up sanctions which has seen cash flying out of Russia and putting serious pressure on their reserves and currency. How Putin will handle this will be interesting. Capital controls is one thing, responding to Obama is another. Putin has said he is not interested in Ukraine, the Yanks are ignoring him and pushing him against the wall anyway. Typical bullies they are, well Putin is one too I guess, so we will see who can kick sand harder in the face of the other.
DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – RBA Gov Stevens. US Durable Goods. NZ Trade balance.
Forex Market Analysis.
AUDUSD – We are in the trade and getting HHHL’s as desired. Seeing calls of 95c but don’t think we need to get that aggressive so soon. We have resistance at 93 and large resistance at 9390. This run I expect will get into the mid 92’s. The head and shoulder pattern did not play out, or trade according to the classic pattern so I do not see the earlier touted 800 pip run happening.
EURUSD – A wild night of riding news leaves us with a LHLL and low test bar. Not something I would generally be looking at for trading.
GBPUSD – A HHHL and I like this to trade, looks good technically and goes with my fundamental view of the pound and UK economy.
NZDUSD – HHHL in middle of trend, looking to retest recent highs.
USDCAD – A string of seller bars as greenbacks weaken and we are in phase 2. Waiting for it to complete.
USDJPY – Really is boring now. An inside bar and the 50ema is flatlined.
GOLD – Found support at 1307 and is holding above it as news from Ukraine confuses.