David Long

Aunt Janet and Putin withdraw as PMI data is released

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Forex Market Analysis with David Long and Knowledge to Action


Aunty Janet Yellen backtracks from her 12mth slip of tongue saying the US Fed will continue to support the economy with low rates for many moons, weakening the greenback Monday night. Putin pulls troops off the Ukrainian border as European inflation stagnates and the P.O.M’s manufacturing slightly disappoints. I never understood why Australians called the English P.O.M’s (Prisoners Of her Majesty) when we were the deported prisoners…anyway. The PMI is still in growth but has been declining from a high of 58 in January. The Mounties in Canada are pushing inflation higher overnight which saw some strength come into the Loonie, as I indicated, I think their economy has hit bottom and turned. The European unemployment has seemed to have turned too, with ever so slightly stronger numbers. Over in the star Strangled banner they got pumped from car sales and manufacturing figures showing stronger growth last night, whilst up north in Panda country, like the POMs their manufacturing PMI has been slipping for some months now and is well in negative territory at 48.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU Building approvals. UK Construction.

AUDUSD – Retested the 93¢ level and was found wanting so the bulls should be careful here. I see some lower prices ahead back to support of 9085.
Resistance: 9300/9390
Support: 9085/8900/8654

EURUSD – A HHHL but closed uncommitted again. Would like to see this higher as it has been languishing behind its peers, but I suppose so has their economy. Was a swing low for entry and I suspect some entered from this. I need the fundamentals to be in line with the technical to warrant a trade.
Resistance: 14050/14260/14320
Support: 13740/13488

GBPUSD – An inside seller bar off the news and I am not panicking. In fact, the sellers may give me an opportunity to scale into another trade (on the 4hour) now that my initial entry is well in profit with stop loss now protecting that profit.
Resistance: 16785/1.69/1.70
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – You do not get many better setups for a trend reversal trade than that. Back to the mid to low 84’s this will go.
Resistance: 8676/8842
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – A smidgen of a HH but then a seller bar. Now I want another HH again, must see the buyers truly committed before joining them, and in the current price action (plus fundamental data) I am not seeing that.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 10859/10715

USDJPY – Powered higher with no possible entry on the 4hr yet. Day chart momentum is over cooked and there is minor resistance from March highs 103.75. Look for a pullback from that as a possible entry to get long and test the major resistance of 105.57. Safe haven is gone, the Russian bear is back hibernating.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Gold will continue to weaken as the Russians calm the market.
Resistance: 1427/1480
Support: 1,265/1,180/1,040



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