David Long

The Flying L Trader – February the 12th

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Greenback and US treasuries fall as “Alan Greenspan Service Pack 3” Janet Yellen signals there is much to do yet! Here is someone who is never will be satisfied. She will continue to taper the quantitative easing but after that will be interesting, she has been on record as suggesting negative interest rates as a solution, crazy stuff I agree but I didn’t say it. As a side note, I notice that in the US congress they are voting shortly to “suspend” the debt ceiling until March 2015. On one hand this means no fiscal cliff, on the other it means no fiscal responsibility. If it is approved, we will be watching the US debt market with much interest and humour.
Everything else rallied, from stocks to commodities to currencies.

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – Chinese Trade Balance. UK Inflation Report and Carney Speech. US Federal budget balance

AUDUSD – The Aussie rally that pushed it back into starting with a 0.9 was attributed to the House Price Index Year on Year change of +9.3%. This gave us a strong bullish bar and a break through 9087 is a signal that the down trend is over as the market would no longer be making LH’s in the trend.
Resistance: 9167/9300/9428
Support: 8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – Started out well but then fell, is this the currency’s death knell? When the greenback is under so much pressure overnight and all other currencies have bolted against it the Euro ends as a bearish bar. Seriously sick so stay away.
Resistance: 13733/13830/14065
Support: 13488/13420/13266

GBPUSD – Another buyer bar, just, but a HHHL still.
Resistance: 16610/16785/1.69
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – Getting pulled up by its bigger cousin but still inside the range.
Resistance: 8400/8475/8535
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – Engulfing decidedly bearish bar and the pullback continues to 1.08
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 11035/10859/10715

USDJPY – A slightly HHHL as it sits right on the ema now. Still looking for it to continue over and up to the recent resistance.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – As figured, the catalyst was AGSP3! Gold broke the ceiling emphatically. Next stop should be the mid 1300’s.
Resistance: 1265/1,307/1,350
Support: 1,225/1,180/1,040

BITCOIN (from Mt.Gox exchange) – The volatility shows that bitcoin has some work to do about its bid to be sustainable. Last at 575 having touched a low yesterday of 500.

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