David Long

The Flying L Trader – The 13th February

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All the action overnight came from Europe and UK. The US was subdued with a decent budget balance offset by inflation of prices slowing down. Stocks in the US are off a little, whilst crude is up smalls and copper +1.3%. Back across the Atlantic however, Carney raised the UK growth forecasts but signalled that rates will be on hold for some time yet which saw the pound motor.

The big news story was the spectre of negative interest rates again. The ECB is considering charging banks to hold money for them with negative deposit rates. This in effective forces the banks to use the funds they have at the ECB rather than park it there. The reason being is that the as the ECB is struggling to spur growth and investment with nerves about the GDP due out Friday night. The Euro got spanked thanks to this news http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-11/dollar-holds-decline-versus-major-peers-before-u-s-retail-sales.html .

DATA HIGHLIGHTS TODAY – AU Unemployment. US Retail sales. Yellen testifies to the US Senate.

AUDUSD – Another HHHL but finishing as balanced between the buyers and sellers being a doji bar. Failed, at this stage, to break the Jan high so will be interesting to see how it goes today, especially with the jobs data at 1130.
Resistance: 9167/9300/9428
Support: 8654/8550/8300

EURUSD – As mentioned, it is showing signs of unhealthy as it coughs and splutters across the ema. Each time it does though it is making lower highs and lower lows and so you should be looking for shorting opportunities rather than being bullish the €.
Resistance: 13733/13830/14065
Support: 13488/13420/13266

GBPUSD – Giddyup bull, ride him cowboy! A large overextended bullish HHHL bar and not yet near overbought territory on the momentum indicators. Stops should be moved to breakeven or better now, maybe some profit taken too but this is still to show any sign of weakness yet so do not rush out of the trade.
Resistance: 16610/16785/1.69
Support: 16300/15950/15830

NZDUSD – A high test bar now close to the other side of the range and we are looking at retracing back to the lower end.
Resistance: 8400/8475/8535
Support: 8090/7925/7714

USDCAD – A lower low and the phase 2 retracement is still ongoing.
Resistance: 11170/11233
Support: 11035/10859/10715

USDJPY – An inside test bar which is no sign of anything for us yet. Sentiment is still to the upside at this stage.
Resistance: 105.57/108.35/110.50
Support: 100.62/100/99.80

GOLD – Carrying on its merry way, minor resistance at 1307 might be tested in days to come.
Resistance: 1265/1,307/1,350
Support: 1,225/1,180/1,040

BITCOIN (from Mt.Gox exchange) – A comparatively quiet night with a range of 511 to 585.

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