David Long

March Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar:  March started with improved ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI and increased Unemployment Claims. This followed with better than expected ADP Non-Farm and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9% and Average hourly earnings m/m and Crude oil Inventories came below expectations. Second week brought Crude Oil Inventories and Unemployment Claims above expectations. Second half of the month brought improved Core Retail Sales m/m,  as expected Retail Sales m/m and PPI m/m.  Building Permits and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment came below. CPI m/m came unchanged and Core CPI m/m improved above expectations. FOMC minutes came dovish and interest rates remained on hold. This followed by much improved Filly Fed Manufacturing Index, slightly reduced Unemployment Claims and reduced Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.  Easter weekend was met with improved Crude Oil Inventories, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m came disappointing, Unemployment Claims slightly below expectations while Final GDP q/q well above expectations. End of the month saw Improved Consumer Confidence and Non-Farm Employment Change above expectations, while Unemployment Claims Increased.

CNY: The month started with reduced Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI.  Trade Balance came well below expectations. CPI y/y improved, Industrial Production y/y came disappointing. End of the month saw China ‘downgrading’ it’s growth target to 6.5-7% and warning of a ‘difficult battle ahead’. Last year the economy grew 6.9% which was the lowest in the last 25 years. China was targeting consumer inflation at around 3% and Unemployment within 4.5%.


The month started with upward Eur move and positive comments by Mario Draghi at the press conference stating that the improved growth forecast, deflation scare over and interest rates falling will help to unblock lending to real economy.  ECB reductions in the interest rates from 0.05 to 0.00 and following Draghi’s comments that he does not anticipate further reduction caused Eur spike upward 400 pip on the day. Second half of the month saw improved German Ifo Business Climate while Zew Economic Sentiment came improved but below expectations.

EurUsd Rallied some 590 pips now at the top of the Range – 1.14 resistance


GbpUsd: The month started with Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI below expectations. Manufacturing Production m/m and Average Earnings Index 3m/y came above expectations, improved Claimant Count Change followed.  BOE kept interest rates on hold. Disappointing CPI y/y was followed by improved Retail Sales.  The month ended with much reduced Current Account, well below expectations.

GBPUSD after a short rally remained in the 460 pip range, now coming into a nose of equal triangle.


AudUsd: The month started with disappointing Building Approvals and Retail Sales, GDP q/q and Trade Balance improved above expectations. Cash Rate remained Unchanged. RBA Monetary Minutes were upbeat on jobs which rate cut still possible. Second Half of the month followed with disappointing Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reduced to 5.8%.

AudUsd bounced of 61.8 all time Fib and after breaking through a long term trendline and major resistance continued it’s way up.


Week ahead in the News

USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI,  FOMC Meeting Minutes, Unemployment Claims.

CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI;  GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI;  AUD: Cash Rate, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

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