David Long

September Market Overview

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‘the future of tomorrow is not reflected in the data of yesterday!’ -Clifford Bennett

$Us Dollar: The month started with ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM manufacturing PMI well below expectations, improved Trade Balance and increased unemployment claims. Unemployment Rate reduced to 5.1%. Second week brought reduced Unemployment Claims and Improved PPI m/m. Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales and CPI m/m came below expectations, Core CPI m/m as expected, Building permits and Unemployment Claims improved, Filly Fed Manufacturing Index came well below. Despite original expectations for FOMC to increase Interest rate to 0,5% , this was dropped back to 0.25 at the last minute and the interest rates were left unchanged. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m were disappointing, Unemployment Claims slightly improved. The month ended with improved Final GDP q/q at 3.9%. ‘Economy is doing pretty well, the hike is expected before the end of the year’.
CNY: The month started with China Manufacturing PMI slightly lower and Caixin Final Manufacturing PMI just above expectations. Second week brought largely improved Trade Balance, improved CPI y/y and reduced Industrial Production y/y. Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI came below expectations.
EurUsd: ECB kept rates on hold, German Zew Economic Sentiment came well below expectations, French Flash Manufacturing PMI improved, German came slightly below. ECB TLTRO greatly disappointed expectations. German Info Business Climate came above.

After forming double bottom EurUsd is dancing above 61.8Fib cluster.


GbpUsd: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI started the month below expectations as did Manufacturing Production. BOE kept interest rates on hold. CPI y/y and Retail Sales came as expected, Average Earnings Index 3m/y came above expectations and Claimant Count Change well below.

AudUsd: Buildings approvals m/m came well above expectations while cash rate remained on hold. Disappointing Retail sales and GDP q/q were offset by improved Trade Balance. Much improved Employment Change was followed by steady Unemployment Rate.

AudUsd broke through 15 year trendline and all time Fib of 61.8 and dancing just below it, on top of support at 0.7000.


UsdCad: GDP m/m, Trade balance, Employment change and Ivey PMI started much improved month while unemployment rate increased to 7%. Bank of Canada kept interest rates on hold. Building permits improved m/m. The month ended with disappointing Core Retail Sales.

UsdCad broke through 13 years resistance at 1.3300 and is dancing just below 61.8 all-time Fib Level.


Week ahead in the News

USD: ADP Non Farm Employment Change, Non Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate. Care to be taken with the running positions around Non Farm .

CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI;  GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI,  Aud: Cash Rate, Retail Sales, Trade Balance; Cad: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate.


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