David Long

September Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar: September started with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Unemployment Rate. Non-Farm Employment Change came well below expectations. Better than expected Crude Oil Inventories in the first week were followed by disappointing results in the second. Mid-month saw improved Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m, while Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment came below expectations. Building Permits and Crude Oil Inventories were disappointing while Unemployment Claims and CB Consumer Confidence Improved. Federal Funds Rate remained on hold, but Fed indicated the rates are likely to be raised in December to avoid a clash with the elections. This was followed with disappointing Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and improved Unemployment Claims. Final GDP q/q came above expectations at 1.4%.

CNY: The month started with improved Manufacturing PMI, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI reduced. Industrial Production y/y improved to 6.3%, above expectations. The month ended with Caixin Manufacturing PMI as expected.

EurUsd: ECB kept interest rates at 0% in line with expectations. German Zew Economic Sentiment was well below expectations while German’s Ifo Business Climate came much improved. The month ended with President Draghi stating that ECB monetary policy has maintained price stability and countered the threat of the ‘new great depression.’ He stressed the need to seize the opportunity to deliver structural reforms.


EurUsd continued it’s ride into a nose of the triangle, dancing about the all-time 61.8 Fib level.

GbpUsd: The month started with improved Manufacturing PMI, Construction PMI and Services PMI followed by disappointing Manufacturing Production m/m. Mid-month saw CPI at 0.6% which was below expectations, as was Claimant Count Change. Average Earnings Index 3m/y and Retail Sales came below expectations. BOE kept interest rates at 0.25 in line with predictions. The month ended with Current Account well above expectations.


GDPUSD descended some 730 Pips and broke through all time post-Brexit Low

AudUsd: The month started with disappointing Private Capital Expenditure, Retail Sales and GDP q/q. RBA kept Cash Rate at 1.5% as expected. Trade Balance improved above expectations; Unemployment Rate reduced to 5.6%. The second half of the month saw Employment Change well below expectations. The month ended with RBA Governor Philip Lowe stating that Low interest rated are expected to be the norm in Australia in the foreseeable future, as low wage inflation and weak commodity prices weigh on the economy.


AudUsd continues it’s choppy ride into the nose of the wedge, now consolidating.

Week ahead in the News
USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.

CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, Manufacturing production m/m, Inflation Report Hearings; AUD: Building Approvals, Cash Rate, Retail sales m/m and Trade Balance; CAD: Trade Balance, GDP m/m, BOC Rate Statement.

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