David Long

July Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar:  July started with much improved ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI , followed by better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Claims decreased while Average Hourly Earnings m/m came below expectations. Unemployment Rate increased to 4.9%. Mid-month saw improved PMI m/m and Unemployment claims, CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m were unchanged, Core Retail Sales m/m and Retail Sales m/m much improved. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment was disappointing, Building Permits came as expected. Filly Fed Manufacturing Index came well below expectations which followed by improved Unemployment Claims. The month ended with Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged and disappointing Core Durable Goods Orders m/m.

CNY: The month started with unchanged Manufacturing PMI, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI and Trade Balance disappointed.  GDP q/y came unchanged but above expectations. Industrial Production y/y was much improved.

EurUsd:  German Zew Economic Sentiment was well below expectations. ECB kept it’s monetary policy unchanged. German’s  Ifo Business Climate  came above expectations.

EurUsd stayed choppy, now re-testing 78.6 Fibonacci level and the monthly horizontal.


GbpUsd: Following Brexit the new month started with improved Manufacturing PMI and Manufacturing Production m/m while Construction and Services PMI came below expectations. BOE kept interest rates on hold despite rate cut predictions.  CPI y/y increased to 0.5% while Average Earnings Index 3m/y came as expected. Claimant Count Change and Manufacturing PMI came above expectations. Retail Sales and Services PMI disappointed. The month ended with Preliminary GDP q/q  above expectations.

GDPUSD reached all-time low of 1.2795, then rallied some 700 pips. Now consolidation on 1.31 level


AudUsd: The month started with unchanged Cash Rate, while Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance all disappointed. Employment Change came below and Unemployment Rate as expected.  CPI q/q came as expected.

AudUsd remained choppy in the range of 260 pips.


Week ahead in the News

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m.

CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI; Eur: Minimum Bid Rate;  GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, BOE Inflation Report, Official Bank Rate;  AUD: Building Approvals, Trade Balance,  Cash Rate, Retail sales m/m,; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

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