August Market Overview

August Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar:
August started with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI , followed by better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Claims increased while Average Hourly Earnings m/m came above expectations. Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9%, above expectations. Mid-month saw improved Unemployment claims. Disappointing Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m , Core CPI m/m and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment followed. Building Permits and CPI m/m came as expected.
Second half of the month saw Dovish FOMC minutes, improved Filly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. This followed with improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims. Preliminary GDP q/q came as expected.
The month ended with hawkish statement from Janet Yellen that the case for the increasing interest rates has ‘strengthened in recent months’.
CNY: The month started with reduced Manufacturing PMI, while Trade Balance much improved. Industrial Production y/y came below expectations.
EurUsd: German Preliminary GDP q/q came reduced but above expectations while German Zew Economic Sentiment was well below expectations. German’s Ifo Business Climate came below expectations.

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EurUsd remained in a Weekly Range, cycling in a small upward channel; now re-testing all-time 61.8 Fibonacci in cluster with 50 Fib retracement on the last Phase 1 and a monthly horizontal. New Phase one up could commence in the coming week.

GbpUsd: The month started with improved Construction PMI, disappointing Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI remained unchanged. BOE cut interest rates to 0.25 in line with predictions. Manufacturing Production m/m and Average Earnings Index 3m/y came below expectations. CPI y/y increased to 0.6%, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales came above expectations. The month ended with unchanged Second estimate GDP q/q.

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GDPUSD post Brexit remained in a Range. Moving some 520 Pips, it re-tested 1.285 horizontal giving opportunities to Long all GDP crosses in the last two weeks.

AudUsd: The month started with reduced Cash Rate to 1.5%. Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance all disappointed. The second half of the month saw improved Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

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AudUsd ascended some 280 Pips following Interest Rate reduction to 1.5%, reaching it’s monthly Trendline. Now commencing it’s descend in the new Phase. MACD bearish Divergence.

Week ahead in the News
AudUsd: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m.
CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, AUD: Building Approvals, Private Capital expenditure, Retail sales m/m; CAD: Trade Balance, GDP m/m.

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