David Long

August Market Overview

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Monthly Currency Trading News

$Us Dollar:
August started with disappointing ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI , followed by better than expected ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Claims increased while Average Hourly Earnings m/m came above expectations. Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.9%, above expectations. Mid-month saw improved Unemployment claims. Disappointing Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m , Core CPI m/m and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment followed. Building Permits and CPI m/m came as expected.
Second half of the month saw Dovish FOMC minutes, improved Filly Fed Manufacturing Index and Unemployment Claims. This followed with improved Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Unemployment Claims. Preliminary GDP q/q came as expected.
The month ended with hawkish statement from Janet Yellen that the case for the increasing interest rates has ‘strengthened in recent months’.
CNY: The month started with reduced Manufacturing PMI, while Trade Balance much improved. Industrial Production y/y came below expectations.
EurUsd: German Preliminary GDP q/q came reduced but above expectations while German Zew Economic Sentiment was well below expectations. German’s Ifo Business Climate came below expectations.

EurUsd remained in a Weekly Range, cycling in a small upward channel; now re-testing all-time 61.8 Fibonacci in cluster with 50 Fib retracement on the last Phase 1 and a monthly horizontal. New Phase one up could commence in the coming week.

GbpUsd: The month started with improved Construction PMI, disappointing Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI remained unchanged. BOE cut interest rates to 0.25 in line with predictions. Manufacturing Production m/m and Average Earnings Index 3m/y came below expectations. CPI y/y increased to 0.6%, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales came above expectations. The month ended with unchanged Second estimate GDP q/q.

GDPUSD post Brexit remained in a Range. Moving some 520 Pips, it re-tested 1.285 horizontal giving opportunities to Long all GDP crosses in the last two weeks.

AudUsd: The month started with reduced Cash Rate to 1.5%. Building Approvals, Retail Sales and Trade Balance all disappointed. The second half of the month saw improved Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

AudUsd ascended some 280 Pips following Interest Rate reduction to 1.5%, reaching it’s monthly Trendline. Now commencing it’s descend in the new Phase. MACD bearish Divergence.

Week ahead in the News
AudUsd: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims and Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m.
CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, AUD: Building Approvals, Private Capital expenditure, Retail sales m/m; CAD: Trade Balance, GDP m/m.

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