Monthly Currency Trading News
$Us Dollar: April started with improved CB Consumer Confidence and better than expected ADP Non-Farm and Non-Farm Employment Change. Unemployment Claims increased and Unemployment Rate went up back to 5%. Average hourly earnings m/m increased and Crude oil Inventories came below expectations. ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI improved. Second week brought disappointing Crude Oil Inventories while Unemployment Claims came above expectations. FOMC meeting minutes expressed concerns about global economic slowdown and it appears unlikely that the interest rates will be raised before June. Second half of the month brought disappointing Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m and PPI m/m. CPI m/m and Core CPI m/m also came below expectations. Crude Oil Inventories improved as did Unemployment Claims. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Building Permits came below expectations. Filly Fed Manufacturing Index came well below, Unemployment Claims above expectations. Crude Oil Inventories reduced. End of the month saw disappointing Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, CB Consumer Confidence and Advanced GDP q/q. Fed kept interest rates on hold and FOMC statement said June hike was unlikely.
CNY: The month started with improved Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Trade Balance came well below expectations. Weak Chinese trade data put a cap on oil and stocks rally and created renewed demand on Jpy as safe haven. GDP q/y came steady at 6.7% while Industrial Production y/y much improved.
EurUsd: The move by the ECB to ease policy and to increase the monthly QE programme initially sent the Euro lower, but after Draghi’s statement that no further cuts are anticipated euro spiked up helped by the weak USD. German ZEW economic sentiment came well above expectations , interest rates remained on hold. The month ended with disappointing German Ifo Business Climate.
GbpUsd: The month started with Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI below expectations. CPI y/y improved to 0.5%, BOE kept interest rates on hold. Manufacturing Production m/m, Average Earnings Index 3m/ y, Claimant Count Change and Retail Sales all came below expectations. The month ended with Prelim GDP q/q as expected.
AudUsd: The month started with improved Building Approvals and disappointing Retail Sales. Trade Balance came well below expectations, Cash Rate remained Unchanged. Employment Change and Unemployment Rate improved. CPI q/q came much below expectations which sent the Aud down.
Week ahead in the News
USD: Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Claims.
CNY: Manufacturing PMI, Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI; AUD: Annual Budget release, Cash Rate, Building Approvals, Trade Balance, Retail Sales; retail sales; CAD: Trade Balance, Nzd: GDT Trade Index, Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate.
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