David Long

April 2017 Market Overview

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April 2017 Market Overview

$Us Dollar: The month started with much improved ADP Non-Farm Employment Change while Non-Farm Employment Change came well below expectations. Average Hourly Earnings m/m and ISM Manufacturing PMI came in line, Non-Manufacturing PMI well below. Ood news came with Unemployment Claims reduced and Unemployment Rate down to 4.5%. Mid-month saw disappointing PPI m/m, CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Retail Sales m/m and Core Retail Sales. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment improved. Building Permits came above, Filly Fed Manufacturing Index below expectations. The month ended with CB Consumer Confidence, Crude Oil Inventories, Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m and Advanced GDP q/q all below expectations.

USD Index formed Head and Shoulder, now consolidating between the neckline and a long term trendline.
CNY: Trade Balance came well above expectations at 164B, GDP q/y slightly increase, as did Industrial Production y/y

First round of Presidential French Election sent Eur soaring. German Ifo Business Climate came above expectation. ECB left Interest Rate at 0%.

EurUsd: Formed reversed Head and Shoulder with neckline aligned with monthly horizontal. Now broke through the neckline, 200 EMA and the long term trendline, consolidating.

GbpUsd: The month started with disappointing Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI came above and Construction PMI below expectations. Manufacturing Production m/m came well below expectations. CPI y/y came at 2.3%. Average Earnings Index 3m/y increased to 2.3%. Retail Sales came below expectations as did Preliminary GDP q/q.

GBPUSD: broke out of the established Range since Oct 2016 in the aggressive upwards move.

March brought disappointing Retail Sales, well improved Trade Balance and unchanged interest rate. Employment Change came well above expectations, Unemployment Rate in line with. The month ended with CPI q/q below expectations while Trimmed CPI q/q came as expected.

AudUsd continues it’s dance within a range, now cycling down in a newly established channel.

Week ahead in the News

ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Claims, Unemployment Rate, FOMC statement and Federal Funds rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m and Crude Oil Inventories.

Caixin Manufacturing PMI; GBP: Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, AUD: Cash rate, Trade Balance, RBA Monetary Statement; CAD: Trade Balance, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate; NZD:GDT Price Index, Employment change, Unemployment Rate.

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